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147 plays, one strand. Bills won without the lead ever changing hands; Ravens peaked at 46% to win, Bills at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for BUF, down for BAL, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Ravens peaked at 46% to win, Bills at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Bills win, play by play. High = BUF in control, low = BAL in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for BUF on offense, down for BAL; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Bills ↑
Ravens ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: BAL on the left, BUF on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.5 expected points against Bills.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 4:17 · BUF · Interception−5.5 EP
17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 85-J.Hawes INTERCEPTED by 96-B.Washington at BUF 17. 96-B.Washington to BUF 17 for no gain.
- 2Q2 14:10 · BAL · Fumble lost−5.2 EP
5-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 33 for -7 yards (24-C.Bishop). FUMBLES (24-C.Bishop) [24-C.Bishop], touched at BAL 32, RECOVERED by BUF-52-K.Elarm
- 3Q2 7:41 · BAL · Missed field goal−3.7 EP
33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
- 4Q2 2:00 · BUF · Fumble lost−3.3 EP
17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to BAL 20 for 19 yards (24-M.Starks; 0-R.Smith). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down
- 5Q2 1:21 · BAL · Interception−4.1 EP
12-J.Fagnano pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Igbinosun (25-G.Stone) at 50. 21-D.Igbinosun to BAL 33 for 17 yard
- 6Q3 14:06 · BAL · Completion+3.9 EP
12-J.Fagnano pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to BUF 43 for 22 yards (3-D.Hamlin). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,
- 7Q4 12:23 · BUF · Touchdown+3.1 EP
17-J.Allen pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 8Q4 2:38 · BAL · Fumble lost−3.8 EP
12-J.Fagnano FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 48, RECOVERED by BUF-42-D.Williams at BUF 47.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the 51-yard kick had missed
Q2 0:14 16-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
19@27
33@30
0@16
7@42
36@43
9@24
24@19
34@17