The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 7 · 2026Patriots 24 · 30 Bears

139 plays, one strand. Bears won without the lead ever changing hands; Patriots peaked at 48% to win, Bears at 98%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for CHI, down for NE, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Patriots peaked at 48% to win, Bears at 98%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Bears win, play by play. High = CHI in control, low = NE in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for CHI on offense, down for NE; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Bears ↑

Patriots ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: NE on the left, CHI on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

NECHI

49Plays65

380Yards406

4Explosive plays8

3Offensive TDs3

1Turnovers0

48%Peak win prob.98%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

NE–33yCHIFG29yNEPunt6yCHIPunt3yNEPunt1yCHITD74yNETD68yCHIFG35yNEINT53yCHITD70yNETD66yCHITD82yNETD90yCHIPunt2yNEPunt27yCHIFG ✕56yNEPunt3yCHIFG55yNEFG33y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 4.4 expected points for Bears.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q1 2:32 · CHI · Completion
18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden to NE 4 for 58 yards (31-K.Byard).
+4.4 EP
2
Q2 3:32 · NE · Interception
10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 48-D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.
−5.3 EP
3
Q2 0:21 · CHI · Touchdown
18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+4.4 EP
4
Q2 0:03 · NE · Touchdown
10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+6.5 EP
5
Q3 3:52 · NE · Touchdown
10-D.Maye pass deep right to 82-E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.5 EP
6
Q4 13:14 · CHI · Completion
18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 34 for 21 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).
+2.9 EP
7
Q4 9:40 · CHI · Completion
18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to NE 34 for 9 yards (22-C.Woods). Penalty on NE-0-C.Gonzalez, Illegal Use of Hands, declin
+3.0 EP
8
Q4 8:02 · CHI · Missed field goal
8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
−3.2 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

24@30

Week 7Changes the winner

If the Patriots had converted that fourth-and-5

Patriots after the play35%what really happened

Q1 11:35 10-D.Maye sacked at CHI 46 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon).

Week 7

The rest of the week

Every week →

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