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Panthers DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Panthers rush defense, 28th in the league, meets a Broncos ground game ranked 13th

Carolina's offense grades ahead of Denver's by EPA, but the Panthers' run defense and a thinning front seven decide Sunday's matchup at Bank of America Stadium.

Scouting ReportDefensevsLine DEN -2.5
By Panthers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:51 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

Carolina's offense ranks 12th in the league at 0.031 EPA per play, with a 42 percent success rate. EPA, or expected points added, measures how many points a play adds compared with what a typical team would get from the same spot on the field. Denver's offense is 20th at minus 0.022 and succeeds on 38 percent of its plays.

The defenses are closer than the records suggest. The Panthers allow 0.029 EPA per play (21st) and a 45 percent success rate. The Broncos allow minus 0.023 (13th) and 40 percent.

Denver is 6-2 with a point differential of plus 7 and has won four straight. Carolina is 3-4 at minus 15, has lost two straight and is 1-2 at home. The Panthers still lead the NFC South, with the Buccaneers and Falcons both at 3-5, and hold the No. 4 seed.

Where they can win it

The ground game is the clearest opening. Denver's rush defense ranks 26th, and Carolina's rush offense ranks 12th. Chuba Hubbard has 540 yards on 119 plays, at 0.06 EPA per play and a 46 percent success rate.

Hubbard is also productive as a receiver. He has 26 targets for 150 yards and 0.49 EPA per play. AJ Dillon has 17 plays at minus 0.56 EPA and a 24 percent success rate, so the useful carries have come from Hubbard.

The passing game has a reliable target in Tetairoa McMillan. He has 570 yards on 66 targets, a 27 percent target share, 0.34 EPA per play and a 59 percent success rate. Jalen Coker (363 yards, 18 percent share) and Darren Waller (209 yards, 52 percent success rate) give Bryce Young other options. Young is at 0.05 EPA per play with 1,785 yards, though Denver's pass defense ranks 9th.

The worry

Carolina's rush defense ranks 28th, and Denver's rush offense ranks 13th. The Broncos' lead backs have not been efficient. J.K. Dobbins has 306 yards on 94 plays at minus 0.19 EPA per play with a 29 percent success rate. Jonah Coleman has 134 yards on 30 plays at 0.08 EPA and a 50 percent success rate. RJ Harvey adds 217 yards on 28 targets at 0.22 EPA per target.

Bo Nix sits at 0 EPA per play with a 38 percent success rate and a completion rate 2.6 points below expectation. Denver does not need him to carry the offense, and the Panthers' run defense could give the Broncos room to avoid it.

The recent results are the second concern. Carolina lost 43-13 to the Buccaneers, a 30-point margin, and then 27-19 at Green Bay by 8. Denver is 4-0 at home but 2-2 on the road.

Availability

Carolina's report is heavy on defense. Cornerback Will Lee III, linebacker Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Bobby Okereke are out, and so is guard Damien Lewis. Center Corey Bullock and guard Torricelli Simpkins III are questionable. Akayleb Evans, Xavier Legette, Jonathon Brooks and Brady Christensen are on injured reserve.

Denver is without safety Brandon Jones and defensive end Eyioma Uwazurike, both ruled out. Safety Talanoa Hufanga is questionable. Cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine is out, linebacker Dondrea Tillman is questionable, and Pat Bryant is on injured reserve.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS. The first Denver possessions will show how the Panthers' reshuffled linebackers handle the run.

Denver is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5, a market read of the matchup and not a pick.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.