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Panthers DeskThe TapeGame center →

Panthers lose 26-21 to Denver after Bryce Young is stripped on the final drive

Carolina out-gained Denver 353 yards to 312 and had the better EPA per play, but a sack-fumble at the Denver 44 with 1:24 left ended it.

CARBryce YoungThe TapeL 21–26vsBRONCOSQBBryce Young
By Panthers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 8, 6:20 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The game turned on one snap. With 1:24 left in the fourth quarter, Bryce Young was sacked at the Denver 44 for a loss of 8 yards, and N.Bonitto forced the fumble and recovered it. The play was reviewed and upheld. Carolina's win probability dropped 32 percentage points, the largest swing of the afternoon for the Panthers.

The Panthers trailed 26-21 at that point. They had scored a touchdown in each of the last three quarters, and the drive was their chance to add a fourth.

It was the second Carolina turnover of the game. Denver had one. That one-turnover gap was small, and it landed on the play that mattered most.

The swing

The third quarter held the other big swings. At 1:35, Young's pass to Tommy Tremble was ruled incomplete, Denver challenged, and the ruling was reversed. That cost Carolina 23 points of win probability. On the next snap, at 1:30, J.Coleman ran right guard to the Denver 27 for 7 yards, a 23-point swing as well.

Then at 1:28, Chuba Hubbard was stopped up the middle at the Denver 1 for no gain, a 21-point swing the other way. Carolina's longest drive of the day ran 12 plays and 87 yards and ended in an interception, so the Panthers gained ground without finishing the possession.

Denver converted 6 of 10 third downs. Carolina converted 3 of 10. The Broncos held the ball for 31:26 to the Panthers' 28:05, and they scored on 5 of 10 drives against 3 of 10 for Carolina.

Who moved the needle

Young produced the best EPA total on the team at 7.6 over 43 plays. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each play changes a team's scoring outlook. He went 28 of 39 for 276 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 interception and a passer rating of 106.4. He took 3 sacks for 19 yards. He also ran once for 13 yards.

John Metchie III caught 2 passes for 40 yards on just 2 targets, and his 7.1 EPA ranked second on the team. Darren Waller caught 8 of 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown, worth 4.6 EPA. Tetairoa McMillan added 4 catches for 56 yards and a score. Jalen Coker caught 4 passes for 29 yards.

Tremble was the low mark at -3.7 EPA on 6 plays, and that includes the reversed incompletion in the third quarter.

Hubbard carried 16 times for 79 yards, 4.9 per carry. Carolina averaged 4.8 yards per rush against 3.0 for Denver. On defense, Patrick Jones II had 3 tackles for loss and a sack, and Tyrel Dodson and Devin Lloyd each made 8 tackles.

Where it leaves them

Carolina's per-play numbers beat Denver's. The Panthers posted 0.125 EPA per play and a 47 percent success rate. The Broncos posted 0.043 and 43 percent. The Panthers also went 3 of 3 on fourth down and scored on 3 of 4 red zone trips. For a rebuild, that is a team gaining small edges in the data. The result still went the other way.

The record is 3-5 with a three-game losing streak, 1-3 at home, and a point differential of -20. The Panthers sit second in the NFC South by record tie-break position, level with Tampa Bay and New Orleans at 3-5, with Atlanta at 3-6.

Next up is a trip to New Orleans on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. Carolina is listed as a 1.5-point favorite, and the Saints are one of the three teams sharing its 3-5 record.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.