Saints at Falcons: Week 17 preview, odds and injuries

Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium1 PM ET

at1 PMET · Fox

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 8:58 PM ET

The New Orleans Saints (3-5) visit the Atlanta Falcons (3-6) on Sun, Jan 3, 1 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA (Week 17, 2026 season), on Fox.

When and where is Saints vs Falcons?

Sun, Jan 3, 1 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. TV: Fox.

Who is injured for Saints vs Falcons?

Saints: Erik McCoy (C, doubtful, biceps) and CJ Donaldson (RB, questionable, shoulder). Falcons: Anterio Thompson (DT, out, undisclosed) and Zachariah Branch (WR, doubtful, hamstring).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Saints at Falcons: Week 17 preview”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2027-01-03-no-at-atl (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

Regular season through week 16 · rank out of 32

Where this game will be decided

1Falcons run game vs Saints run defense
The Falcons' run game ranks 8th in EPA per rush (-0.00, 239 rushes) against a Saints run defense ranked 28th (-0.02 allowed, 204 rushes faced).
8thATL offense20 spots apart28thNO defense
2Saints red-zone offense vs Falcons red-zone defense
The Saints' red-zone offense ranks 6th in red-zone touchdown rate (66%, 29 trips) against a Falcons red-zone defense ranked 24th (67% allowed, 33 trips faced).
6thNO offense18 spots apart24thATL defense
3Saints third-down offense vs Falcons third-down defense
The Saints' third-down offense ranks 8th in third-down conversion rate (43.5%, 115 third downs) against a Falcons third-down defense ranked 23rd (43.3% allowed, 120 third downs faced).
8thNO offense15 spots apart23rdATL defense

When the Saints have the ballNo big edge

NO dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

21st+0.02342 dropbacks

+0.04 allowed345 dropbacks faced15th

NO run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

24th-0.13187 rushes

-0.06 allowed228 rushes faced21st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Falcons have the ballEdge ATL · +20 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNO pass defense

28th-0.13286 dropbacks

+0.10 allowed304 dropbacks faced22nd

ATL run gameEPA per rushNO run defense

8th-0.00239 rushes

ATL +20

-0.02 allowed204 rushes faced28th

Third downEdge NO · +15 ranks

NO third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

8th43.5%115 third downs

NO +15

43.3% allowed120 third downs faced23rd

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNO third-down defense

28th35.2%105 third downs

49.5% allowed103 third downs faced30th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NO · +18 ranks

NO red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

6th66%29 trips

NO +18

67% allowed33 trips faced24th

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNO red-zone defense

14th62%26 trips

49% allowed35 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge ATL · +12 ranks

NO big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

29th7.0%529 plays

ATL +10

9.6% allowed573 plays faced19th

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNO defense against big plays

15th9.5%525 plays

ATL +12

10.6% allowed508 plays faced27th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

NO pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

14th5.8% sacked342 dropbacks

5.8% of dropbacks345 dropbacks faced18th

ATL pass protectionsack rateNO pass rush

12th5.6% sacked286 dropbacks

7.6% of dropbacks304 dropbacks faced8th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge ATL · +8 ranks

NO ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

27th1.6 giveaways a game8 games

ATL +8

1.1 takeaways a game9 games19th

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameNO takeaway defense

28th1.7 giveaways a game9 games

0.9 takeaways a game8 games28th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

AbsencesNO 1 · ATL 0 regulars out or doubtful

Saints2 listed

1 of them is a regular ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

DErik McCoyC97% offense · 8 wk
QCJ DonaldsonRB26% offense · 7 wk

Falcons2 listed

0 of them are regulars ruled out or doubtful (60%+ of their unit's snaps across 3+ weeks on the field).

DZachariah BranchWR24% offense · 8 wk
OUTAnterio ThompsonDTno snaps

Snap share is the average of the weeks each player was on the field this season. Full injury report ↓

Rest & travelSame rest · NO travels 424 mi

AwaySaints

7days since last game

424miles to get here

1time zones

Last: Sun wk 16 vs ARI · 15,807 mi flown this season

Normal week

Rest edgeEvensame restTravel gap 424 mi

HomeFalcons

7days since last game

0miles · home

0time zones

Last: Sun wk 16 vs TB · 12,887 mi flown this season

Normal week

League splits for these situations ↓

Sample: NO 8 games, 529 offensive and 508 defensive plays · ATL 9 games, 525 offensive and 573 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Season to date · rank out of 32