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Bears DeskThe TapeGame center →

Caleb Williams throws four picks, and Loveland's 38-yarder still wins it for Chicago

Colston Loveland's 38-yard catch with 0:47 left carried Chicago past Tampa Bay 27-24 after Caleb Williams threw four interceptions.

Caleb WilliamsThe TapeW 27–24vsBUCCANEERSQBCaleb Williams
By Bears Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 9, 12:40 AM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

Colston Loveland caught a deep left pass from Caleb Williams for 38 yards with 0:47 left in the fourth quarter, and he was pushed out of bounds at the Tampa Bay 16. That one play moved the Bears' win probability by 26 points, the biggest swing of the afternoon. It set up the last three points of a 27-24 win over the Buccaneers at Soldier Field.

It was a hard way to get there. Chicago had thrown four interceptions and lost a fumble, five turnovers in all. The Bears were up 14-0 after the first quarter, and Tampa Bay then outscored them 24-13 the rest of the way.

The swing

The game turned twice in the third quarter, a minute apart. With 4:38 left, Williams threw short left for Luther Burden III and A.Anzalone picked it off at the Chicago 43. That cost the Bears 13 points of win probability.

Then the Buccaneers gave it back. With 3:39 left, B.Mayfield threw short right for C.Otton and J.Johnson stepped in front of it and ran 67 yards for a touchdown. That play was worth 24 points of win probability to Chicago and made up the Bears' seven points in the quarter.

Burden's fumble with 3:48 left in the fourth was the other bad moment. Tampa Bay recovered at the Chicago 21 and Burden left hurt, a second 13-point swing against the Bears. Chicago still found 3 points before the clock ran out.

Who moved the needle

Williams finished 22 of 37 for 279 yards and two touchdowns, with four interceptions and a rating of 61.5. He averaged 7.5 yards an attempt. He was sacked once, for 2 yards, which is the number to keep an eye on in this offense, because Tampa Bay was sacked four times for 17.

Burden led the receivers with seven catches for 97 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. His longest went 56 yards. Rome Odunze added four catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. Loveland had four for 54, and 38 of those came on the last big play. Kalif Raymond caught four for 32.

The ground game gave Williams little help. Chicago ran for 72 yards at 3.3 a carry, while Tampa Bay ran for 126 at 4.5. Salvon Ahmed carried five times for 25 yards, 5.0 a carry, and his longest run was 8 yards. Williams ran five times for 16.

The Chicago defense kept the Buccaneers off schedule. Tampa Bay converted 2 of 12 third downs, and Chicago went 7 of 13. Austin Booker, Jeffery Simmons and Shemar Turner each had a sack, and Booker hit the quarterback twice. Devin Bush led the team with nine tackles and two passes defensed.

Where it leaves them

Chicago is 7-2 and has won four straight. The Bears have scored 241 points and allowed 184, a difference of 57. They are the No. 5 seed in the conference and second in the division. Minnesota is 6-1, and Detroit at 6-2 and Green Bay at 6-3 are right behind Chicago.

The passing game moved the ball. The Bears threw for 277 net yards at 7.3 a pass and kept the protection clean with one sack. The problem was the four picks and the two late turnovers that nearly cost a 14-0 start.

Next up is the New Orleans Saints at Soldier Field on Sunday, Nov. 22, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, in Week 11. The Bears are 4-1 at home this season.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.