The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 8 · 2026Chiefs 24 · 28 Broncos

148 plays, one strand. Broncos won after 2 lead changes; Chiefs peaked at 92% to win, Broncos at 72%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for DEN, down for KC, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom line2 lead changes; Chiefs peaked at 92% to win, Broncos at 72%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Broncos win, play by play. High = DEN in control, low = KC in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for DEN on offense, down for KC; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Broncos ↑

Chiefs ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: KC on the left, DEN on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

KCDEN

67Plays56

399Yards297

4Explosive plays5

3Offensive TDs3

0Turnovers0

92%Peak win prob.72%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

KCPunt4yDENFG29yKCTD54yDENPunt8yKCPunt13yDENFG44yKCPunt0yDENPunt22yKCTD105yDENTD52yKCFG48yDENPunt11yKCPunt15yDENPunt8yKCTD63yDENPunt0yKCPunt19yDENTD67yKCFG ✕29yDENTD56yKC–49y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.1 expected points for Broncos.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q2 13:04 · DEN · Completion
10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle to KC 41 for 35 yards (21-J.Hicks; 27-C.Conner).
+3.1 EP
2
Q2 7:54 · KC · Touchdown
15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-E.Johnson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [29-J.McMillian].
+7.0 EP
3
Q2 1:19 · DEN · Touchdown
10-B.Nix pass short right to 17-J.Waddle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
+2.5 EP
4
Q3 2:28 · KC · Completion
15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-C.Allen to DEN 4 for 12 yards (26-D.Key; 49-A.Singleton) [99-Z.Allen].
+2.6 EP
5
Q4 9:00 · DEN · Touchdown
10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.8 EP
6
Q4 2:36 · KC · Missed field goal
7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
−2.7 EP
7
Q4 2:31 · DEN · Completion
10-B.Nix pass short right to 20-J.Coleman to KC 5 for 51 yards (20-N.Williams; 32-N.Bolton).
+3.8 EP
8
Q4 0:04 · KC · Sack
15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).
−2.6 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

24@28

Week 8Changes the winner

If the Chiefs had converted that fourth-and-6

Chiefs after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:04 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

Week 8

The rest of the week

10@36

34@17