The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 8 · 2026Colts 7 · 42 Jaguars

131 plays, one strand. Jaguars won without the lead ever changing hands; Colts peaked at 48% to win, Jaguars at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for JAX, down for IND, as long as the yards it gained.

Game page Download poster (SVG)All games

Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Colts peaked at 48% to win, Jaguars at 100%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Jaguars win, play by play. High = JAX in control, low = IND in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for JAX on offense, down for IND; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Jaguars ↑

Colts ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: IND on the left, JAX on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

INDJAX

58Plays53

245Yards366

4Explosive plays6

1Offensive TDs5

3Turnovers1

48%Peak win prob.100%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

INDPunt18yJAXTD103yINDPunt4yJAXPunt18yINDPunt38yJAXPunt5yINDFUM17yJAXTD45yINDPunt10yJAXTD75yINDPunt-2yJAXFUM-10yINDINT14yJAXPunt-11yIND–3yJAXTD37yINDTD65yJAXTD83yINDINT31yJAXPunt2yIND–14yJAXPunt9yINDPunt10yJAXPunt10yIND–23y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.4 expected points for Jaguars.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q1 10:33 · JAX · Completion
64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 85-B.Strange pushed ob at IND 32 for 46 yards (25-A.Haulcy).
+3.4 EP
2
Q1 5:35 · JAX · Touchdown
16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-Bri.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.3 EP
3
Q2 9:11 · IND · Fumble lost
28-J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-57-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
−5.8 EP
4
Q2 7:22 · JAX · Touchdown
16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 87-N.Boerkircher for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+3.2 EP
5
Q2 2:00 · JAX · Touchdown
33-B.Tuten right tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+4.0 EP
6
Q2 1:03 · JAX · Fumble lost
16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 40 for -8 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau). FUMBLES (91-J.Tuimoloau) [91-J.Tuimoloau], RECOVERED by IND-55-C.Curry at JAX
−5.4 EP
7
Q2 0:25 · IND · Interception
17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Lane [99-R.Orhorhoro] at JAX 8. 25-R.Lane for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
−11.0 EP
8
Q4 13:29 · IND · Interception
17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 50-B.Combs [91-A.Armstead] at JAX 19. 50-B.Combs to JAX 28 for 9 yards
−4.3 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

7@42

Week 8

If the Colts had fallen on their own fumble

Colts after the play17%what really happened

Q2 9:11 28-J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-57-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

Week 8

The rest of the week

34@17