The LabEvery game, drawn from every snap

Week 7 · 2026Buccaneers 43 · 13 Panthers

126 plays, one strand. Buccaneers won without the lead ever changing hands; Buccaneers peaked at 100% to win, Panthers at 57%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for CAR, down for TB, as long as the yards it gained.

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Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Buccaneers peaked at 100% to win, Panthers at 57%.

How to read this chart

Read it left to right:: kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
The white line: is the chance that Panthers win, play by play. High = CAR in control, low = TB in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
Each little bar is one play:: up for CAR on offense, down for TB; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).

Panthers ↑

Buccaneers ↓

win probabilityhome snapaway snaptouchdownturnoverfield goalpuntincomplete

Head to head

The strands compared

How to read this chart

Each row compares the two teams: on one stat: TB on the left, CAR on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
Explosive plays: are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.

TBCAR

58Plays54

325Yards266

6Explosive plays4

4Offensive TDs2

0Turnovers3

100%Peak win prob.57%

Drive by drive

Every possession

How to read this chart

Each tile is one possession,: in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
Inside:: the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.

TBTD70yCARPunt19yTBPunt11yTBFG14yCARFUM11yCARTD72yTBTD64yCARINT12yTBTD37yCARPunt-8yTBPunt7yCARINT11yTBFG16yCAR–64yTBTD99yCARTD71yTB–7yCAR–14y

Key moments

The plays that moved it most

Largest swings in expected points

Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 5.1 expected points for Buccaneers.

How to read this chart

The strip is the game clock;: each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
EP (expected points): is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.

12345678

1
Q1 0:59 · TB · Punt
9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-41-K.Kieft at CAR 18.
+5.1 EP
2
Q2 11:15 · CAR · Fumble lost
9-B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (97-A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (97-A.Muhammad) [97-A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-94-C.Kancey at CAR 32. 94-
−7.7 EP
3
Q2 9:18 · CAR · Touchdown
9-B.Young pass deep middle to 88-D.Waller for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+4.5 EP
4
Q2 2:39 · CAR · Interception
9-B.Young pass short right intended for 18-J.Coker INTERCEPTED by 27-Z.McCollum at 50. 27-Z.McCollum to CAR 32 for 18 yards (30-C.Hubbard).
−4.5 EP
5
Q2 0:12 · TB · Touchdown
6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+4.3 EP
6
Q3 9:03 · CAR · Interception
9-B.Young pass short right intended for 13-J.Metchie INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith (22-K.Scott) at CAR 32. 23-T.Smith to CAR 32 for no gain (13-
−5.0 EP
7
Q3 1:55 · CAR · Incomplete
9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 87-B.Tremayne.
−3.8 EP
8
Q4 10:31 · TB · Touchdown
44-S.Tucker left guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+4.2 EP

Sliding Doors

The one play that could have changed it

All sliding doors →

How to read this chart

The line is win probability: over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
Press Flip it: to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.

43@13

Week 7

If the Panthers had recovered that fumble

Panthers after the play12%what really happened

Q2 7:33 7-B.Irving left tackle to CAR 37 for 6 yards (24-W.Lee; 55-D.Lloyd). FUMBLES (24-W.Lee), recovered by TB-80-D.Sills at CAR 37. 80-D.Sills ran ob at CAR 37 for no gain.

Week 7

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