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140 plays, one strand. Falcons won after 1 lead change; 49ers peaked at 75% to win, Falcons at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for ATL, down for SF, as long as the yards it gained.
ā³Bottom line1 lead change; 49ers peaked at 75% to win, Falcons at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Falcons win, play by play. High = ATL in control, low = SF in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for ATL on offense, down for SF; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Falcons ā
49ers āThe strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: SF on the left, ATL on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
ā³Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.2 expected points for 49ers.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (ā) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q2 15:00 Ā· SF Ā· Touchdown+3.2 EP
26-K.Black up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 2Q2 4:24 Ā· SF Ā· Fumble lostā5.6 EP
26-K.Black up the middle to ATL 29 for -1 yards (92-M.Smith). FUMBLES (92-M.Smith), touched at ATL 29, RECOVERED by ATL-95-G.Dexter at ATL 2
- 3Q3 5:41 Ā· SF Ā· Interceptionā4.0 EP
13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 4-J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL 10. 3-J.Bates ran ob at ATL 10 for no gain.
- 4Q4 14:12 Ā· SF Ā· Completion+2.8 EP
13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins to ATL 35 for 35 yards (31-X.Watts).
- 5Q4 12:27 Ā· SF Ā· Completion+3.5 EP
13-B.Purdy pass short right to 4-J.Cowing to ATL 23 for 11 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- 6Q4 11:36 Ā· SF Ā· Sackā4.0 EP
13-B.Purdy sacked at ATL 27 for -4 yards (55-Z.Smith).
- 7Q4 2:42 Ā· SF Ā· Interceptionā5.7 EP
13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 17-J.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Daniels at SF 48. 53-K.Daniels pushed ob at SF 19 for 29 yards (7
- 8Q4 0:57 Ā· SF Ā· Fumble lostā2.5 EP
13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to ATL 19 for 22 yards (3-J.Bates). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), RECOVERED by ATL-53-K.Daniels at ATL 20.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the 33-yard kick had missed
Q2 0:02 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
16@10
35@13
10@16
28@25
3@20
