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Saints DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Saints are winless at home and face a Browns offense ranked 25th

New Orleans is 0-4 in the Superdome, but Cleveland's offense and run defense both sit in the bottom third of the league.

Scouting ReportOffensevsLine NO -3
By Saints Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 4:01 PM ET2 min read

The Saints are 0-4 at the Caesars Superdome this season and 2-1 on the road. The Browns arrive 5-3 with a 3-0 record at home and 2-3 away, and the point differentials are close: Cleveland is at minus 34, New Orleans at minus 32.

That is the shape of Week 9. Neither team scores efficiently, and the Saints have been the worse team in their own building.

The matchup in numbers

New Orleans scored 162 points and allowed 194. Cleveland scored 139 and allowed 173. Both offenses post a 42 percent success rate, meaning 42 percent of their plays gain what the down and distance demand.

Expected points added, or EPA, measures how much each play changes a team's scoring outlook. The Saints offense is at minus 0.037 per play, 22nd in the league. The Browns are at minus 0.079, 25th.

The gap is on defense. Cleveland allows minus 0.017 EPA per play, 14th, and holds opponents to a 42 percent success rate. The Saints allow 0.075 per play, 27th, and a 49 percent success rate, seven points worse.

Where they can win it

The Browns defense is 27th against the run, and the Saints rush offense is 26th. Kendre Miller has 57 plays at minus 0.29 EPA with a 25 percent success rate, and Alvin Kamara has 41 at minus 0.14 and 27 percent. Neither has made the ground game a weapon, but this is the softest part of Cleveland's defense.

The better route is Chris Olave. He has 71 plays and 636 yards at 0.53 EPA per play, with a 27 percent target share. Devaughn Vele adds 348 yards at 0.46 and Juwan Johnson 255 at 0.20. Tyler Shough has 1,608 yards and a 0.03 EPA per play, so the targets are producing more than the quarterback line suggests.

Cleveland's pass defense is 10th, so those throws will not come easily.

The worry

The Saints run defense is 31st. Quinshon Judkins has 101 carries for 342 yards, but at minus 0.22 EPA and a 30 percent success rate, he has not been efficient. A defense this far down the run rankings can turn that into a steady diet of short gains.

The pass defense sits 23rd, so there is no strength to lean on. New Orleans lost 24-45 to Atlanta in Week 4 and 13-23 to Minnesota in Week 5, then beat the Giants 34-27 in Week 6 before a 10-16 home loss to Pittsburgh in Week 7.

The Browns come off a 6-27 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 8, so both teams have a bad result to answer.

Availability

New Orleans lists cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. (shin) and tackle Asim Richards (thumb) as questionable, and both are starters. Running back CJ Donaldson (shoulder) is out. Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and running back Travis Etienne Jr. are on injured reserve.

Cleveland lists quarterback Deshaun Watson as questionable with a concussion. Watson has 307 plays, 1,634 yards and an EPA per play of 0.00. Defensive tackle Maliek Collins (elbow) is out.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The Saints are three-point favorites with a total of 42.5, context that fits two offenses ranked 22nd and 25th in EPA per play.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.