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Browns DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Browns offense ranks 25th and faces a Saints defense that ranks 27th

Cleveland's 42 percent success rate meets a New Orleans defense allowing 49 percent, with Deshaun Watson listed as questionable.

Deshaun WatsonScouting ReportatLine NO -3.5QBDeshaun Watson
By Browns Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:40 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Browns offense produces minus-0.079 EPA per play, 25th in the league, with a 42 percent success rate. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves a team's scoring chances. The Saints defense allows 0.075 per play, 27th, and a 49 percent success rate. That is seven points of success rate between what Cleveland generates and what New Orleans gives up.

Cleveland is 5-3 but has been outscored 173-139, a point differential of minus-34. The Browns lost 27-6 at the Steelers in Week 8 and are 2-3 on the road. The Saints are 2-5 and 0-4 at home.

Where they can win it

The Saints rank 31st against the run. The Browns rank 27th in rushing offense, so this is the best chance to stay on schedule on early downs. Quinshon Judkins has 342 yards on 101 plays, but a minus-0.22 EPA per play and a 30 percent success rate. His carries have gained yards without keeping drives on track.

The passing game has better options. Harold Fannin Jr. has 411 yards on 51 plays, a 57 percent success rate and 0.26 EPA per play. KC Concepcion sits at 0.21 and 53 percent, and Denzel Boston has 409 yards with a 22 percent target share. New Orleans ranks 23rd against the pass.

On the other side, the Browns pass defense ranks 10th and the Saints pass offense ranks 20th. Tyler Shough has 1,608 yards, 0.03 EPA per play and a 46 percent success rate.

The worry

The Browns rank 27th against the run. The Saints rank 26th in rushing offense, and Kendre Miller (minus-0.29 EPA per play, 25 percent success) and Alvin Kamara (minus-0.14, 27 percent) have not moved drives. Cleveland's run defense still gives them a soft place to start.

Chris Olave is the bigger problem. He has 636 yards on 71 targets, a 27 percent share, with 0.53 EPA per play and a 62 percent success rate. Devaughn Vele adds 0.46 and 58 percent.

The Browns also have to fix their own offense. Deshaun Watson has 1,634 yards on 307 plays at 0 EPA per play and a 46 percent success rate. Jerry Jeudy has a 58 percent success rate but only 24 targets, a 10 percent share. The Browns scored 6 points in the last game.

Availability

Cleveland: defensive tackle Maliek Collins is out with an elbow injury, and he is a starter. Watson is questionable with a concussion.

New Orleans: cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. (shin) and offensive tackle Asim Richards (thumb) are both questionable, and both are starters. Running back CJ Donaldson is out with a shoulder injury. Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and running back Travis Etienne Jr. are on injured reserve.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS from the Caesars Superdome, and Watson's status decides who takes the first snap.

For context, the Saints are listed as 3.5-point favorites and the total is 42.5.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.