Week 7 · 2026Giants 27 · 21 Texans
143 plays, one strand. Giants won after 1 lead change; Giants peaked at 87% to win, Texans at 61%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for HOU, down for NYG, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom line1 lead change; Giants peaked at 87% to win, Texans at 61%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Texans win, play by play. High = HOU in control, low = NYG in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for HOU on offense, down for NYG; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: NYG on the left, HOU on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 2.8 expected points for Giants.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 7:39 · NYG · Run+2.8 EP
17-D.Mooney left end to HOU 44 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- 2Q1 6:59 · NYG · Completion+3.4 EP
18-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-M.Nabers pushed ob at HOU 2 for 42 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
- 3Q1 4:05 · NYG · Completion+4.1 EP
18-J.McCarthy pass short right to 88-M.Fields to HOU 37 for 47 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
- 4Q1 1:23 · NYG · Missed field goal−3.7 EP
34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
- 5Q2 2:00 · HOU · Completion+2.7 EP
7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 1-T.Dell to NYG 30 for 43 yards (22-A.Phillips).
- 6Q2 0:39 · HOU · Touchdown+3.6 EP
7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 18-M.Harrison for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- 7Q3 11:17 · NYG · Sack−2.6 EP
18-J.McCarthy sacked at HOU 37 for -5 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
- 8OT 7:33 · NYG · Touchdown+3.0 EP
26-D.Singletary up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Texans had stopped that fourth-and-2
Q1 7:39 17-D.Mooney left end to HOU 44 for 3 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).