Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
Pro Football RumorsCardinals Work Out QBs Cooper Rush, Trevor SiemianESPNWhy Giants' trade attempts 'just didn't happen'ESPNChiefs add WR Josh Downs at NFL trade deadlineESPNHow the Amani Hooker trade helps the Titans rebuildInjuryEric Wilson: Active → Cleared2 h agoPro Football RumorsJets Work Out QBs Bailey Zappe, Austin ReedInjuryZach Allen: Active → Cleared3 h agoPro Football RumorsCowboys Add RB Kendre Miller To Practice SquadESPNHow Josh Downs fits with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offenseInjuryNathan Shepherd: Active → Cleared3 h agoESPNPatrick and Brittany Mahomes announce baby No. 4 on NFL trade deadline dayInjuryJoshua Metellus: Active → Cleared3 h agoCincinnati BengalsInside The Drive | How Ja'Marr Chase Took Over MadridInjuryJordyn Brooks: Active → Cleared4 h agoPro Football RumorsNFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/10/26ESPNRaiders name Fernando Mendoza starting QB after trading Kirk CousinsInjuryQuentin Lake: Active → Cleared4 h agoInjuryDre'Mont Jones: Active → Cleared4 h agoInjuryChristian Barmore: Active → Cleared4 h agoSan Francisco 49ersPower Rankings: Where the 49ers Stand Entering Week 10ESPNGet ready for Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday Night FootballPro Football RumorsMinor NFL Transactions: 11/10/26
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
Rams DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Rams' run-heavy early downs meet a Commanders defense ranked 21st against the pass

Los Angeles ranks sixth in rushing offense and fourth in defensive EPA, and Washington has lost all three of its road games.

atScouting ReportatLine LAR -4.5
By Rams Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 4:00 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Rams carry the 10th-ranked offense by EPA per play (0.046) into Northwest Stadium. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves the scoreboard compared with an average snap. Washington's offense sits at -0.009 per play, 17th, with a 41 percent success rate against the Rams' 48.

The defensive gap is wider. Los Angeles allows -0.103 EPA per play, fourth in the league, and holds opponents to a 41 percent success rate. Washington allows 0.028 per play, 20th, and 46 percent.

The Rams are 4-4 with a plus-26 point differential and a two-game winning streak: 35-21 at the Raiders in Week 7, then 24-9 over the Chargers in Week 8. The Commanders are 2-4-1 at minus-23, coming off a 27-10 win over the Eagles, and they are 0-3 on the road.

Where they can win it

The Rams rank sixth in rushing offense and 16th in passing offense, so early-down looks are where the formation work pays off. Washington's rush defense ranks 15th and its pass defense 21st, which points to the pass as the softer target even if Los Angeles leans on the ground.

Matthew Stafford has 318 plays at 0.07 EPA per play and 2,058 yards. Puka Nacua holds a 25 percent target share with 565 yards. Davante Adams draws 17 percent of targets but produces the best efficiency in the group: 0.45 EPA per target and a 57 percent success rate over 49 plays.

In the backfield, Blake Corum has outperformed Kyren Williams per snap. Corum posts 0.14 EPA and a 52 percent success rate on 75 rushes, while Williams sits at 0 and 42 percent on 112. Tyler Higbee has the highest success rate among the main targets at 62 percent on 34 plays.

The worry

Jayden Daniels has been the Commanders' most efficient piece: 0.12 EPA per play over 178 plays, with a completion rate 5.6 points above expectation. That is well above Stafford's 0.6. The Rams rank fifth against the pass, which gives them a sturdy answer.

Stefon Diggs leads Washington with a 20 percent target share and 252 yards. Antonio Williams has 259 yards on a 15 percent share at 0.31 EPA per target. The ground game has not helped Daniels. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 239 yards at minus-0.1 EPA per play with a 36 percent success rate, and Rachaad White has 200 yards at minus-0.03. The Rams rank third against the run, so Washington's easiest route to balance is also its least productive one.

Availability

Los Angeles lists four starters on the report. Long snapper Joe Cardona is doubtful with an ankle injury. Cornerback Trent McDuffie (back), safety Kam Curl (foot) and receiver Jordan Whittington (back) are questionable. Tight end Colby Parkinson (ribs) and linebacker Grant Stuard (hamstring) are also questionable. Terrance Ferguson, Dean Connors and Jaylen Watson are on injured reserve.

Washington will be without receivers Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown, both out. Terry McLaurin, who has 28 targets at 0.5 EPA per target, is on injured reserve with a knee injury, as are tackle Laremy Tunsil, defensive tackles Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne, and running back Jeremy McNichols.

The Rams are 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 47.5, context for a game in which the season numbers favor Los Angeles on both sides of the ball. Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.