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143 plays, one strand. Steelers won without the lead ever changing hands; Browns peaked at 47% to win, Steelers at 100%. The white spine is the win probability, every rung a snap: up for PIT, down for CLE, as long as the yards it gained.
↳Bottom lineThe lead never changed hands; Browns peaked at 47% to win, Steelers at 100%.
?How to read this chart
- Read it left to right:
- kickoff on the left, final whistle on the right.
- The white line
- is the chance that Steelers win, play by play. High = PIT in control, low = CLE in control, the middle is a coin flip. Each crossing of the middle is a change in who was more likely to win.
- Each little bar is one play:
- up for PIT on offense, down for CLE; the longer the bar, the more yards. The key under the picture explains the marks (touchdown, turnover, field goal, punt).
Steelers ↑
Browns ↓The strands compared
?How to read this chart
- Each row compares the two teams
- on one stat: CLE on the left, PIT on the right. The longer bar is the bigger number.
- Explosive plays
- are long gains (big runs and passes). Peak win prob. is the highest chance to win each team reached at any moment.
Every possession
?How to read this chart
- Each tile is one possession,
- in game order, colored by the team that had the ball.
- Inside:
- the team, how it ended (TD = touchdown, FG = field goal, INT = interception, FUM = fumble, otherwise punt or downs) and the yards gained. Brighter tiles are drives that scored.
The plays that moved it most
↳Bottom lineThe biggest swing: play 1, 3.5 expected points against Browns.
?How to read this chart
- The strip is the game clock;
- each numbered dot is one of the plays below, placed when it happened and colored by the team on offense.
- EP (expected points)
- is how many points the play added to (+) or took away from (−) the offense's expected score. +3.5 EP is worth more than a field goal; big minus numbers are usually turnovers.
- 1Q1 12:17 · CLE · Fumble lost−3.5 EP
2-S.Sanders pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 42 for 2 yards (23-D.Everette; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). Penalty on CLE-55-S.Fano, Offensive
- 2Q1 11:23 · PIT · Incomplete−2.4 EP
8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Warren.
- 3Q1 10:41 · CLE · Fumble lost−5.4 EP
4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 45 for -5 yards (sack split by 6-P.Queen and 97-C.Heyward). FUMBLES (6-P.Queen) [6-P.Queen], touched at CLE 45, REC
- 4Q1 4:17 · PIT · Run+5.1 EP
30-J.Warren up the middle to CLE 25 for 51 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
- 5Q2 0:05 · PIT · Touchdown+3.4 EP
Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- 6Q3 10:23 · PIT · Completion+3.8 EP
8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Washington pushed ob at CLE 1 for 58 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
- 7Q4 14:22 · CLE · Completion+4.2 EP
4-D.Watson pass deep right to 44-H.Fannin pushed ob at PIT 2 for 37 yards (3-J.Brisker; 28-R.Spears-Jennings).
- 8Q4 12:57 · CLE · Incomplete−3.1 EP
4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston.
The one play that could have changed it
?How to read this chart
- The line is win probability
- over the game (top = home team ahead). The dot marks the one play that could have gone either way; the big % is the losing team's chance right after it.
- Press Flip it
- to see where that chance would have gone if the play had gone the other way. Only that instant is priced: the rest of the game never happened.
If the Browns had recovered that fumble
Q2 7:15 13-R.Dowdle right end to CLE 23 for 14 yards (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by PIT-76-T.Fautanu at CLE 19.
19@27
0@16
36@43
24@19
34@17