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Texans DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Stroud's 0.14 EPA per play meets a Chargers offense ranked last

Houston owns the efficiency edge at SoFi Stadium, but a 25th-ranked run game and an 0-4 home record complicate the picture.

C.J. StroudScouting ReportatLine HOU -6QBC.J. Stroud
By Texans Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 3:11 PM ET3 min read

C.J. Stroud has produced 0.14 expected points added per play this season. Justin Herbert has produced -0.27. That 0.41 gap frames Sunday's game at SoFi Stadium (CBS, 4:05 PM ET). EPA measures how much each play moves a team's scoring expectation, so a positive number means the offense gains ground on the average snap.

The matchup in numbers

The Houston Texans (2-5) rank 13th in offensive EPA per play at 0.027, with a 43 percent success rate. The Los Angeles Chargers (0-7) rank 32nd at -0.256 and 35 percent. Their defense is a different unit: ninth overall, allowing -0.04 EPA per play.

Stroud has a 48 percent success rate on 267 plays for 1,776 yards, and his completion percentage is 2.3 points above expected. Herbert sits at 36 percent on 255 plays for 1,240 yards, 4.2 points below expected. The Chargers have scored 99 points and allowed 175, a differential of -76. Houston is at -5.

Where they can win it

The passing game is the clearest edge. Houston ranks 12th in pass offense, and Los Angeles ranks 32nd. Nico Collins has 0.57 EPA per target on 35 targets, with a 57 percent success rate and 329 yards. Dalton Schultz leads the team with a 19 percent target share, 341 yards and 0.23 EPA per target.

The Chargers pass defense is eighth, so Collins and Schultz will not get easy work. Still, Los Angeles has not been able to keep games close. It lost 9-24 at the Rams in Week 8 and 6-22 at the Chiefs in Week 6.

On the other side, Houston's pass defense ranks 19th against a pass offense ranked 32nd. Ladd McConkey is the Chargers' most efficient target at 0.39 EPA on 24 targets, followed by Tre' Harris at 0.3 on 28. Omarion Hampton has 309 yards on 89 rushing plays at -0.29 EPA per play, and Los Angeles ranks 31st in rushing offense.

The worry

Houston's run game is the soft spot. The Texans rank 25th in rushing offense and 25th in rushing defense. Woody Marks has 271 yards on 77 plays at -0.18 EPA per play and a 34 percent success rate. David Montgomery is averaging -0.35 on 52 plays and is out.

The defense allows 0.031 EPA per play, 22nd in the league, with opponents succeeding on 41 percent of snaps. Houston is 0-4 at home and lost 21-27 to the Giants in Week 7, after a 30-34 home loss to the Cowboys in Week 4. The road has been kinder: 2-1, with a 26-3 win at the Titans and a 34-31 win at the Jaguars. The Texans sit second in the AFC South behind Jacksonville at 6-2.

Availability

Houston safety Reed Blankenship, a starter, is out with a concussion. Montgomery is out with a groin injury. Jaylin Noel is on injured reserve with a toe injury, which removes the team's most efficient target at 0.8 EPA on 23 targets and 331 yards.

Los Angeles lists safety Kendall Williamson (calf) and cornerback Deane Leonard (concussion) as out. Guard Kayode Awosika (lower leg) and receiver Brenen Thompson (quadriceps) are doubtful. Linebacker Denzel Perryman, safety Derwin James Jr. and tight end David Njoku are on injured reserve.

The number to watch early is Houston's pass offense, ranked 12th, against the Chargers' eighth-ranked pass defense. Houston is a 6-point favorite on the road with a total of 40.5, which reflects the gap in efficiency between the teams and is context only.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.