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Dolphins DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Dolphins pass defense ranks 32nd as Jared Goff and the Lions come to Miami

Miami's defense is last in EPA allowed per play, so the offense has to answer when its first read is taken away.

vsScouting ReportvsLine DET -6.5
By Dolphins Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:30 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

Miami's defense has allowed 0.131 expected points added per play, the worst mark in the league. EPA is a measure of how many points a play adds compared with an average play from the same down and distance. The Dolphins rank 32nd against the pass and 18th against the run.

Detroit's offense is sixth at 0.113 EPA per play with a 49 percent success rate. Its pass offense ranks fourth. Jared Goff has 1,848 yards and 0.24 EPA per play on 269 plays, with a 51 percent success rate.

The Dolphins offense is 23rd at -0.045 per play with a 40 percent success rate. Detroit's defense is 30th at 0.110 allowed per play and 29th against the pass. Both units are soft, and that is where Miami's path starts.

Where they can win it

The route runs through the short and intermediate game. Malik Willis has 1,169 yards and a 43 percent success rate, with a completion rate 5.4 points below expectation. He needs easy throws that let receivers run after the catch.

Greg Dulcich is the best option in that group. He has 29 targets for 256 yards, 0.45 EPA per play and a 62 percent success rate. Malik Washington leads the team with a 25 percent target share, 329 yards and 0.16 EPA per play.

On the ground, Ollie Gordon II has 91 carries for 408 yards at -0.01 EPA per play and a 36 percent success rate. Detroit's run defense ranks 13th, better than its pass defense at 29th. That gap says the early-down work belongs in the air, with quick throws on first and second down to stay ahead of the sticks.

The worry

The worry is Detroit's receiver group. Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 31 percent target share, 580 yards and 0.31 EPA per play. Sam LaPorta is at 0.74 EPA per play with a 66 percent success rate on 44 targets, and Jameson Williams has 437 yards at 0.54.

Miami's pass defense has no answer in the numbers. A unit that ranks 32nd now faces three targets who each clear 0.30 EPA per play. Jahmyr Gibbs adds 773 rushing yards and a 49 percent success rate, and he also has 44 targets at a 55 percent success rate.

The record adds pressure. Miami is 0-3 at home and has lost its last game, 24-19 to the Patriots in Week 8. Detroit has won three straight, most recently 19-15 over the Vikings. Miami is last in the AFC East at 1-6, behind the Bills at 6-1.

Availability

For Miami, Jaylen Wright, a starting running back, is questionable with a quadriceps injury. Running back Kaytron Allen is also questionable with a quadriceps injury. Defensive end Malik Herring is questionable with a neck injury, and cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. is out.

Detroit is thin on defense. Cornerback D.J. Reed and linebacker Jack Campbell, both starters, are out. Safety Kerby Joseph, linebacker DJ Wonnum and center Cade Mays are also out. St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury.

The game kicks off Sunday, Nov. 8 at 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium on Fox. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5, a line that reflects the gap between the two teams' records and efficiency rankings.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.