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Week 10
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InjuryRhamondre Stevenson: Questionable → Doubtful13 min agoInjuryJosh Jacobs: Out → Questionable13 min agoInjuryA.J. Brown: Out → Questionable13 min agoEagles DeskThe Eagles are 2-7, and the snap data says the market still rates them too high17 min agoBengals DeskBengals throw on early downs more than anyone, and the formation gives it away17 min agoChicago BearsChicago Bears open applications for 2027 Collin Wehr ScholarshipSteelers DeskSteelers' two-minute drill outscored its expectation by 14.4 points37 min agoPro Football RumorsChiefs, 49ers Showed Trade Interest In Jets WR Garrett WilsonCincinnati BengalsJalen Davis, Andrei Iosivas, Brian Parker II Cleared to Return to Practice | BENGALS ROSTER UPDATEInjuryA.J. Brown: Questionable → Out45 min agoInjuryRhamondre Stevenson: Doubtful → Questionable45 min agoNew York JetsRookie Monsters: Jets '26 Draft Class Has Shown Big-Play Ability to Bedevil OpponentsGreen Bay PackersShort notice was no problem for Packers LB Nick NiemannTitans DeskTitans have lost 1.92 games of win probability to single plays, and the clock adds to it56 min agoCarolina PanthersThree takeaways from coordinators on Thursday, including more action for Lee HunterSeahawks DeskSeahawks' two-minute offense has scored 12.7 points more than expected1 h agoPanthers DeskPanthers run the clock well while the record sits a little below the snaps1 h agoESPNWas it a bigger mistake for the Giants or Cowboys being inactive at the deadline?Las Vegas RaidersKenny Loggins, Bucky Heard highlight Sunday's gameday entertainmentESPNNFL Week 10 uniforms: Titans debut 'Rivalries' look, Ravens go all-blackESPNCarson Beck starting for the CardinalsPittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 12
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Eagles DeskThe Lab Report

The Eagles are 2-7, and the snap data says the market still rates them too high

Philadelphia's snap-level margin trails the betting market's by 8.9 points a game, and the deserved standings agree with the record.

MilestoneThe Lab Report1.4Deserved wins · The Lab
By Eagles Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 12:00 PM ET2 min read

The market expected the Philadelphia Eagles to lose by 1.2 points a game through nine games. Snap by snap, they have played like a team that loses by 10.2. That 8.9-point gap is the most surprising finding in this week's Lab read, and it points at a team the betting market is still too generous to.

8.9 points: the market is too kind

The real margin is minus 8.1 per game. The snap-level table lands 2.1 points below that, and 9.0 below the market's expectation. Of 32 teams, Philadelphia ranks 32nd on our list of teams the market underrates, which means no club is more overrated by the number.

The closing spread has already punished that. The Birds are 1-8-0 against it. Pittsburgh is a 4.5-point road favorite on Sunday, and that line is context only. The snap table says the gap it carries is still wider than the market has priced.

Market vs Snaps

1.4 deserved wins: 2-7 is not bad luck

Philadelphia has two wins. Its play has earned 1.4 wins and 7.6 losses, so luck has added 0.6 wins. That is a small cushion, not a rescue.

The conference picture is the same on both tables. The Eagles rank 16th in the conference by record and 16th by deserved record, and both tables leave them out of the playoff field. Nothing in the numbers suggests the record is hiding a better team.

Deserved Standings

21 points on 8 expected: the clock is the one clean spot

Nick Sirianni scores 68 out of 99 on Clock IQ, third of 32 coaches. The two-minute drill is the reason. Philadelphia ran 8 such drives and scored 21 points. An average result on those drives is 8 expected points, so the offense produced 13 more than that.

The timeout habits are tidy too. The Eagles burn 0.67 timeouts a game against a league rate of 0.75. A game that stays inside one score is where that edge gets used, and a 4.5-point line sits inside two scores.

Clock IQ

98th percentile: the cap is heaviest where the play is not

Philadelphia ranks 10th of 32 in Paid vs Played, with 84 percent of its $214.9 million in cap on the field. The distribution inside that number is lopsided. Lane Johnson, the right tackle, carries a $20.3 million cap hit, which is the 98th percentile for pay. His play rates in the 57th percentile.

Andrew Mukuba runs the other way. The safety counts $1.63 million against the cap, sits in the 57th percentile for pay, and has played 100 percent of the snaps, the 97th percentile for playing time. Another $31 million is tied to players who are not playing, and $3.4 million of that sits on injured reserve.

Paid vs Played

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, Nov. 22, at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS, in Week 11. The total is 38.5. The measure to track is whether the real margin, minus 8.1 now, closes toward the market's minus 1.2 or keeps drifting toward the snap table's minus 10.2.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.