Titans have lost 1.92 games of win probability to single plays, and the clock adds to it

The most surprising number is not the record. Tennessee ranks fifth in the league in value for cap dollars, with 87 percent of its spending on the field, and still sits 1-7 through Week 9. The money is mostly working. The football around it is not.

1.8: the wins the film says Tennessee earned

The Titans have one real win. Our deserved-standings model, built from how each game played out snap by snap, gives them 1.8 wins and 6.2 losses. That is a luck figure of minus 0.8 wins, so the record is slightly worse than the play.

The conference picture does not move on either table. Tennessee is 14th in the conference by real record and 14th by deserved record, out of the playoff field on both. A team that falls behind and stays behind does not get rescued by a kinder accounting.

Sunday's opponent is Jacksonville, a 10.5-point favorite at Nissan Stadium with a total of 46.5. Those figures are context for how the market sees the gap, nothing more. Full tables are at Deserved Standings.

1.92: games lost to one play, against 0.4 saved

This is the number that fits a team playing from behind. In Tennessee's losses, one decisive play per game cost 1.92 games' worth of win probability in total. In its wins, one decisive play saved 0.4. The difference is 1.52 games.

Four of the losses could have flipped on a single play. That is half the schedule so far. A bad team loses by drifting; this one has lost by moments, which is a thinner margin than a 1-7 record suggests.

For Week 10, the game to watch is the first time the Titans trail. Each of those swings is in Sliding Doors.

23 of 99: the clock work under Robert Saleh

Robert Saleh's Clock IQ score is 23 out of 99, which ranks 31st of 32. The sharpest evidence is the two-minute drill. Tennessee has run seven of them and scored 3 points, where the situations were worth 6.6 expected points. That is a shortfall of 3.6 points.

Timeouts are not the problem. The Titans burn 0.75 per game, exactly the league average of 0.75. The loss is in what the drives produce once the clock is the opponent, and a team trailing late needs that drill more than most.

The breakdown sits in Clock IQ.

94th and 28th: the Tony Pollard gap

Tony Pollard carries a 9.25 million dollar cap hit, which puts him in the 94th percentile for pay among players league-wide. His playing time lands in the 28th percentile. He is the least valuable contract on the roster by that measure.

The best bargain is cornerback Marcus Harris. His cap hit is 1.07 million, the 26th percentile for pay, and he has played 56 percent of the snaps, the 68th percentile. Another 24.6 million sits with players not playing, and 6.4 million of that is on injured reserve.

A running back paid like a feature back and used like a role player matters for a team that wants to hold the ball and shorten games. Every contract is listed at Paid vs Played.

Kickoff against Jacksonville is Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox.