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Eagles DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Eagles' 32nd-ranked run defense meets a Giants offense that has lived on the pass

Philadelphia is 2-6 with the league's worst rush defense and a 31st-ranked offense, and it hosts a Giants team leading the NFC East.

vsScouting ReportvsLine NYG -3
By Eagles Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:41 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Eagles rank 32nd in rush defense, and the New York Giants bring the 17th-ranked rushing offense into Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. Philadelphia allows 0.102 expected points added per play, 29th in the league. EPA is the points a snap adds or costs against an average result. Opponents succeed on 45 percent of snaps against the Birds.

The Giants' defense allows 0.011 EPA per play, 17th, with a 43 percent success rate allowed. It is not a wall, and it ranks 22nd against the run.

The Eagles' offense sits 31st at -0.127 EPA per play with a 37 percent success rate. New York is at 0.013 and 42 percent, a five-point gap in success rate. Philadelphia is 2-6, on a six-game losing streak and last in the NFC East after a 10-27 loss at the Commanders. The Giants are 4-2-1, lead the division and hold the third seed.

Where they can win it

Rushing success is the lever. Saquon Barkley has 274 yards on 56 plays at 0.02 EPA per play and a 39 percent success rate. Dameon Pierce has 96 yards on 37 plays at -0.16. Barkley is the only Philadelphia back above zero, and only barely.

Jalen Hurts has 853 yards on 179 plays, with -0.05 EPA per play and a 38 percent success rate. His CPOE, completion percentage over expected, is -2.2. Dallas Goedert is the best target in the building at 0.26 EPA per play and a 51 percent success rate on a 14 percent target share. Makai Lemon leads the Eagles with an 18 percent share at 0.07.

The Giants' ground game gives Philadelphia a chance to get off the field. Cam Skattebo has 418 yards on 98 plays but sits at -0.11 EPA per play and a 37 percent success rate. N.Harris has 101 yards on 32 plays at -0.35 and a 25 percent success rate. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on injured reserve.

The worry

The Eagles' pass defense ranks 25th, and the Giants' targets are efficient. Malik Nabers has a 30 percent target share, 605 yards, 0.23 EPA per play and a 52 percent success rate. Isaiah Likely has a 27 percent share, 395 yards, 0.22 EPA per play and a 53 percent success rate.

Jameis Winston is the weak point, at -0.08 EPA per play and a 41 percent success rate on 179 plays. His CPOE is -7.5, well below Hurts. The Giants do not need him to be accurate if Nabers and Likely keep winning on the targets they get.

Philadelphia is 1-3 at home. New York is 1-1-1 on the road.

Availability

The Eagles list six players out. DeVonta Smith, a starter, is out with a hamstring injury. He has 310 yards and a 54 percent success rate. Britain Covey (knee) and Jihaad Campbell (linebacker, hamstring) are also starters ruled out. Jonathan Jones (CB, hamstring), Michael Carter II (CB, abdomen) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) are out as well. Wicks leads the team in EPA per play at 0.5, with a 59 percent success rate. Tanner McKee is questionable with ribs.

For the Giants, Skattebo is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Charlie Jones is questionable with a hand injury.

Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The numbers to watch are the Eagles' success rate on Barkley's carries and the Giants' on Skattebo's, or Harris's if Skattebo sits.

The line has the Giants favored by three, with the total at 38.5, which reflects the gap in offensive efficiency between the two clubs.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.