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Eagles DeskThe Verdict

Eagles lose to Giants 19-11 and the snaps say they earned it

Philadelphia played like a team that wins 14% of the time, and a 24% success rate left the final score a fair reflection of Week 9.

The VerdictEaglesDeservedDeserved 14% · Week 9
By Eagles Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 12:21 PM ET3 min read

The verdict

The Giants earned this one. Played like that, the Eagles win 14% of the time, and the snaps gave the Giants an 86% chance. The deserved margin was Giants by 5.8 points, and the 19-11 final at home was an honest result.

The Eagles did not lose a game they controlled. They lost a game in which the Giants were the better team on most snaps, even if neither offense was good.

What the score hid

Both offenses were poor, and Philadelphia's was worse. The Eagles averaged -0.26 expected points added per snap (EPA, the points a play adds or costs against what the down and field position were worth). The Giants averaged -0.13. The success rate was 24% for the Eagles and 30% for the Giants, so neither side kept drives alive, and the Eagles failed more often.

Luck did not explain the gap. The Eagles finished with -8.3 luck points on the game and the Giants with +5.3, a swing that moved the margin toward New York. Even so, the Giants led on the per-snap numbers before luck entered.

The play that decided the most was the sack-fumble on J.Milton with 13:37 left in the second quarter. A.Reese sacked him for -8 yards at the Eagles' 50, and M.McFadden recovered the fumble for the Giants at the same spot. That one snap cost Philadelphia 15 percentage points of win probability.

The calls

The flags did not decide it. Philadelphia got a 30-yard pass interference call against New York in the first quarter, worth 10 points of win probability. Then the Giants got a late one back: an illegal shift on the Eagles in the fourth quarter at 6:53 gave them 5 yards and 5 points of win probability.

The fourth-down record is mixed, and Nick Sirianni owns the one real miss. On fourth-and-2 from 86 yards out in the second quarter, with 14:21 on the clock, the Eagles punted. The model preferred going for it and put the cost at 0.6 expected points. It was a lean call, not a clear one, but it was the wrong side of the line.

Sirianni was right to go on fourth-and-1 at the New York 40 with 2:00 left in the half, a clear call by the model. The Eagles were stopped, and the decision was still correct. The other five punts, including fourth-and-12 and fourth-and-10 from deep in their own territory, matched the model.

The trend

The Eagles are 2-7 and the data says that record is close to what they have earned. Their deserved wins total 1.4, which is 0.6 fewer than the two they have won. That makes them the seventh-luckiest team in the league by that measure, so the record has not been unfair to them. They have no games robbed and no games won while lucky. Their one-score record is 2-3.

The season luck sheet still runs negative, at -10.1 luck points. Fumble recoveries account for -2, and opponent kicking accounts for -4.2. Their net EPA per snap is -0.214, 31st of 32 teams.

On fourth down, the Chicken Index is 42%, 19th of 32 on the most-timid-first list. The model recommended going 12 times this season, and Sirianni went on 7 of them. The cost across 53 graded fourth downs is 3.1 expected points, with no clear misses. The coaching is not where the season is being lost.

The next game is Week 11 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Nov 22, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.