Seahawks' two-minute offense has scored 12.7 points more than expected

Seattle's two-minute drill has run 10 drives and produced 23 points. The expected total on those drives is 10.3, a gap of 12.7 points. Nothing else in the Lab read on the Seahawks is that far from its baseline.

23 points: the two-minute drill is beating its expected total

Expected points is a measure of what a drive is normally worth given where it starts and how the clock runs. Seattle has more than doubled it across 10 drives. Head coach Mike Macdonald's Clock IQ score is 57 out of 99, 13th in the league, so the clock work is solid and not elite.

The cleanest piece is timeouts. Seattle burns 0.44 per game, against a league average of 0.75. Teams that waste fewer stoppages keep more snaps in hand at the end of a half. The Raiders game is the next place to see whether 23 on 10 drives holds up.

Clock IQ

88%: the cap is working, and the bargain is at left tackle

Seattle has spent $299.5 million of cap against a league figure of $314.6 million, and 88 percent of it is on the field. That ranks second of 32 for value. Another $9.2 million sits on injured reserve, and $27.3 million is tied to players who are not playing.

Jalen Sundell is the best deal. The left tackle carries a $1.08 million cap hit, sits at the 30th percentile in pay and the 87th in playing time, and has taken 100 percent of the snaps. Rashid Shaheed is the opposite case: a $7 million receiver at the 86th percentile in pay and the 31st in snaps played.

Sundell's job on Sunday is to hold the left edge against a Las Vegas front. Shaheed's snap count is the number to check on the same afternoon.

Paid vs Played

5.5 wins: the real record is a half-win short of the snaps

Seattle is 5-4. On snaps, the team deserves 5.5 wins and 3.5 losses, so luck has cost it half a win. The real table puts the Seahawks seventh in the conference, out of the playoff field. The deserved table puts them sixth, inside it.

One rank of difference is small, but it is the line between playing in January and watching it. A win in Week 10 moves the real record toward the deserved one.

Deserved Standings

75% to 33%: the formation tells the pass

Seattle has the most outside runs and the lowest shotgun rate in the league. When the quarterback is in shotgun, the Seahawks pass 75 percent of the time. Under center, they pass 33 percent.

That split makes the formation a hint, but not a loud one. Seattle ranks 19th of 32 in formation predictability, so defenses are not getting a free read. The offense can still threaten explosive plays off play action from under center, and the Raiders will have to respect both looks.

Scheme DNA

Next up

Seattle plays at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS. The market has Seattle at -6.5 with a total of 40.5, context for how the game is priced and not a pick.