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InjuryRhamondre Stevenson: Questionable → Doubtful16 min agoInjuryJosh Jacobs: Out → Questionable16 min agoInjuryA.J. Brown: Out → Questionable16 min agoEagles DeskThe Eagles are 2-7, and the snap data says the market still rates them too high20 min agoBengals DeskBengals throw on early downs more than anyone, and the formation gives it away20 min agoChicago BearsChicago Bears open applications for 2027 Collin Wehr ScholarshipSteelers DeskSteelers' two-minute drill outscored its expectation by 14.4 points40 min agoPro Football RumorsChiefs, 49ers Showed Trade Interest In Jets WR Garrett WilsonCincinnati BengalsJalen Davis, Andrei Iosivas, Brian Parker II Cleared to Return to Practice | BENGALS ROSTER UPDATEInjuryA.J. Brown: Questionable → Out48 min agoInjuryRhamondre Stevenson: Doubtful → Questionable48 min agoNew York JetsRookie Monsters: Jets '26 Draft Class Has Shown Big-Play Ability to Bedevil OpponentsGreen Bay PackersShort notice was no problem for Packers LB Nick NiemannTitans DeskTitans have lost 1.92 games of win probability to single plays, and the clock adds to it59 min agoCarolina PanthersThree takeaways from coordinators on Thursday, including more action for Lee HunterSeahawks DeskSeahawks' two-minute offense has scored 12.7 points more than expected1 h agoPanthers DeskPanthers run the clock well while the record sits a little below the snaps1 h agoESPNWas it a bigger mistake for the Giants or Cowboys being inactive at the deadline?Las Vegas RaidersKenny Loggins, Bucky Heard highlight Sunday's gameday entertainmentESPNNFL Week 10 uniforms: Titans debut 'Rivalries' look, Ravens go all-blackESPNCarson Beck starting for the CardinalsPittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 12
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Bengals DeskThe Lab Report

Bengals throw on early downs more than anyone, and the formation gives it away

Cincinnati leads the league in early-down pass rate, sits 6-2 on both tables, and meets Pittsburgh on Sunday night with a clock-management gap to close.

Air attackThe Lab Report6Deserved wins · The Lab
By Bengals Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 12:00 PM ET3 min read

The most surprising number in the Bengals' Lab file is how lopsided the passing game is by formation. Cincinnati has the league's highest pass rate over expected and its highest early-down pass rate. The same offense is 6th of 32 in formation predictability.

81% to 34%: the shotgun tell

Out of shotgun, the Bengals pass 81% of the time. Under center, they pass 34%. That 47-point gap is why Cincinnati ranks 6th of 32 on the formation-tell list, where 1 is the most predictable offense.

Defenses can read the pass before the snap, and the target tree gets the ball anyway. For Sunday, Pittsburgh's coverage looks should line up with the Bengals' formation. The stat to watch is what Cincinnati does on early downs when it lines up under center. Those snaps are where the pass-or-run question is still open.

The tool is Scheme DNA.

84%: the cap is mostly on the field

Cincinnati ranks 9th of 32 in value, and 84% of its cap is on players who are playing. That leaves $33.2 million on players who are not, $8.9 million of it on injured reserve.

The bargain is the linebacker Barrett Carter. He carries a $1.25 million cap hit, sits at the 47th percentile in pay and has played 100% of the snaps, which is the 99th percentile. The mismatch runs the other way at running back. Chase Brown is paid at the 79th percentile on a $3.75 million hit and played at the 25th.

The lens here is target share. A running back who plays at the 25th percentile is not drawing a big share of the passing game. A defense with Carter on the field every snap faces an offense that rarely gets a mismatch in the middle.

The tool is Paid vs Played.

1.5 points: the market has the Bengals a little low

Through eight games, the closing lines implied a margin of 4.1 points per game for Cincinnati. Snap-level play says 5.7. The real margin is 8.1, which is 2.4 points above what the snaps deserved. The gap between snaps and market puts the Bengals 12th of 32 on the list of teams the market underrates, with 1 the most underrated.

Against the closing spread, Cincinnati is 4-3-1. The market has been close and slightly low, but never badly wrong. This week's line is CIN -3.5 against Pittsburgh, with a total of 49.5. Both are context only. The numbers say the Bengals have been better than the market assumed, though not by a wide margin.

The tool is Market vs Snaps.

43 out of 99: the clock is the soft spot

Zac Taylor's Clock IQ score is 43, which ranks 24th of 32. In the two-minute drill, Cincinnati has run 6 drives and scored 13 points. The model expected 3.9, so the offense has beaten it by 9.1 points. The execution is fine. The problem is the clock management around it.

The Bengals burn 1.13 timeouts per game, against a league average of 0.75. That is 0.38 more per game than the typical team. In a Sunday-night game with a 3.5-point line, one wasted timeout can decide the final possession.

The tool is Clock IQ.

What to watch

The Bengals are 6-2 and in the playoff field on both the real and deserved tables. Their real conference rank is 4th, and the deserved rank is 3rd. They host Pittsburgh on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 8:20 PM ET on NBC. Watch the early-down pass rate out of shotgun, and watch when Cincinnati uses its timeouts in the fourth quarter.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.