Cowboys' two-minute drives paid 13 points on 5.9 expected, and little else did

The most surprising number in the Cowboys' Lab file is on the clock. In nine two-minute drives, Dallas scored 13 points against 5.9 expected, which means the best part of its season has come in the stretch where the clock is the opponent.

13 points: the two-minute drill is beating its expected points

Expected points is the score a typical offense would be projected to produce from the same drives. Dallas has beaten that figure by a wide margin in nine tries. Brian Schottenheimer's Clock IQ score is 56 out of 99, which ranks 15th of 32, so the late-game results are running ahead of the overall clock grade.

The cost shows up in the timeouts. Dallas burns 0.89 per game against a league rate of 0.75. Against San Francisco, a team favored by 3.5 points with a total of 55.5, a high-scoring game will put those late possessions in play again.

See the full breakdown in Clock IQ.

4.3 deserved wins: the record is close to honest

Dallas is 4-5. Our Deserved Standings credit it with 4.3 wins and 4.7 losses, a luck figure of minus 0.3 wins. The record is not hiding a better team.

In the conference, Dallas sits 9th on the real table and 10th on the deserved one. It is out of the playoff field on both. Sunday's game at AT&T Stadium will not change the underlying math, but a loss would leave the Cowboys with little room on either table.

The tables are at Deserved Standings.

0.5 points per game: the snaps say less than the market did

Over nine games the market expected Dallas to win by 3.1 points per game. The real margin is 1.1. The margin Dallas deserved from its snaps is 0.5, which is 2.6 points below the market's number.

That gap ranks 28th of 32 on our list of teams the market has most underrated, so the market has been closer to generous than harsh with Dallas. Against the closing spread the Cowboys are 3-5-1. The line this week is context, not a pick: San Francisco at minus 3.5 asks the Cowboys to play better than the 0.5 their snaps have earned.

The comparison lives at Market vs Snaps.

1.68 games: the losses turned on single plays

In Dallas losses, one decisive play cost the equivalent of 1.68 games of win probability. In wins, one decisive play saved only 0.76. Three of the losses were one play away from flipping.

That is the box score hiding the margin. A team with a deserved record this close to its real one has not been unlucky across the board, but a handful of swing plays have separated 4-5 from something better. San Francisco will test Dallas on the same kind of snaps, where a single third-down stop or turnover moves the game more than the final yardage does.

The plays are charted at Sliding Doors.

What to watch

Dallas hosts San Francisco on Sunday, Nov 15, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox. Watch the late possessions: the Cowboys have been at their best in the two-minute drill, and they have been burning timeouts faster than the league average to get there.