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Texans DeskThe Lab Report

Texans' two-minute offense scored 24 points on 5.5 expected, and the clock work ranks second

Houston is 3-5, but the snaps put the Texans at 4.2 deserved wins and sixth in the conference, and the Browns come next.

Crunch timeThe Lab Report4.2Deserved wins · The Lab
By Texans Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 9:20 AM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Texans' Lab reads is in the two-minute drill. Houston has run seven of those drives and scored 24 points, against 5.5 expected. The record is 3-5, but the underlying tables look better than that.

72: the clock is the best-managed part of the team

DeMeco Ryans' staff scores a 72 out of 99 on Clock IQ, second in the league among 32 teams. The two-minute drill is the main reason. Seven drives produced 24 points, where an average offense would have been expected to produce 5.5.

The Texans also burn timeouts at a rate of 0.25 per game. The league average is 0.75. Those are the habits of a team that gets the ball back with time to use.

That matters against Cleveland if the game is close late. Houston has shown it can turn a short field of time into points.

Clock IQ

4.2: the wins the record leaves out

The Texans are 3-5. Their snaps say they deserve 4.2 wins and 3.8 losses, which makes them 1.2 wins unlucky.

That gap moves the standings. Houston is 11th in the conference on the real table and sixth on the deserved one. The Texans are out of the playoff field as played and in it on the snaps.

The margin tells the same story. The real scoring margin is 2.1 points per game, and the snaps-deserved margin is 2. The results have matched the play on the scoreboard, so the shortfall is in the close finishes.

Deserved Standings

76%: the shotgun tell

Houston passes on 76% of its shotgun snaps and only 31% of its snaps from under center. That split ranks ninth of 32 in formation predictability, with first being the most predictable.

The offense's signature is the most deep shots and the most middle-of-the-field throws in the league. Defenses can read the formation, but they still have to defend the deep middle.

That is the pass-rush question for this young core. When a defense knows the shotgun means a pass, the quarterback's time to throw decides whether the deep shots land. The forecast for Cleveland at Huntington Bank Field is 48 degrees with 12 mph wind and a 24% chance of rain.

Scheme DNA

74%: the cap that is on the field

Houston has spent $226.7 million of a $314.6 million league cap figure, and 74% of it is on the field. The Texans rank 25th of 32 in value. Of the money, $17.5 million sits on injured reserve and $42 million is on players not playing.

The best bargain is Jawhar Jordan, a running back with a $0.29 million cap hit. He has played 3% of the snaps, sits in the 13th percentile in pay and the 85th in play. David Montgomery is the least value among Houston's backs at $3.3 million, with a 78th-percentile cap hit and a 35th-percentile playing rate.

The Texans visit the Browns on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, with the total at 41.5. Those figures are context, not a pick.

Paid vs Played

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.