Saints rank 29th in cap value, and the deserved table agrees with 3-5

New Orleans sits sixth in Clock IQ but 29th in value for cap spent, and the snap-based margin trails the market's number by 3.3 points a game.

The Lab Report2.7Deserved wins · The Lab

By Saints Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 9:10 AM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Saints file is a 6. New Orleans ranks sixth of 32 in Clock IQ under head coach Kellen Moore, which is not where a 3-5 team usually sits. The rest of the Lab tools describe a roster that is paid in the wrong places and a record that is about what the snaps say it should be.

70%: the cap is mostly on the field, and still ranks 29th

The Saints have spent $185.4 million of cap, and 70 percent of it is on the field. Paid vs Played still ranks them 29th of 32 in value. Some of that is $14.9 million on injured reserve, and $40.2 million sits on players who are not playing.

The split shows up at the skill positions. Running back Audric Estime carries a $0.78 million cap hit and has played 10 percent of the snaps. He sits in the 22nd percentile for pay and the 86th for play. Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is the reverse: an $8.12 million hit, 89th percentile in pay, 40th in play.

The Panthers game will show whether the snap shares move toward the cheaper player.

Paid vs Played

2.7: the record is about right

New Orleans is 3-5. Deserved Standings puts the team at 2.7 wins and 5.3 losses, so luck accounts for 0.3 wins. That is a small gap.

The conference tables agree. The Saints are 11th in the real standings and 12th in the deserved ones, and both tables leave them out of the playoff field.

A record that matches the underlying play leaves little to correct. A win Sunday would move the real number, and the deserved number only if the game is played well.

Deserved Standings

-3.3: the market has been kinder than the snaps

Over eight games, the market expected the Saints to lose by 1.2 points a game. The snaps say they should have lost by 4.6, and the real margin is -3.9. The snaps-minus-market difference is -3.3 points.

New Orleans ranks 29th of 32 on the list of teams the market undervalues. The number runs the other way here: the market has leaned toward the Saints, and they are 3-5-0 against the closing spread.

For Sunday, the line is New Orleans -2.5 with a total of 48.5. Both are context for how the market sees the game, nothing more.

Market vs Snaps

64: the clock is the steadiest part of the structure

Moore's Clock IQ score is 64 out of 99, sixth in the league. The two-minute drill is the clearest evidence. The Saints have run three two-minute drives and scored 10 points against an expected 5.

The timeout habit helps too. New Orleans burns 0.38 timeouts a game against a league average of 0.75, about half the rate.

That is the veteran structure in the file: a staff that manages the end of halves well while the roster underneath is still sorting itself out. A sample of three drives is small, but the timeout figure covers every game.

The next test is Week 10. Carolina visits Caesars Superdome on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, and the Saints are 2.5-point favorites.

Clock IQ

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.