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Cowboys DeskThe TapeGame center →

Dak Prescott's 46-yard throw to Ryan Flournoy ended Indianapolis's last lead

Dallas beat the Colts 27-23 on the road after Prescott threw 335 yards and the Cowboys outgained Indianapolis 509 to 271.

Dak PrescottThe TapeW 27–23atCOLTSQBDak Prescott
By Cowboys Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 8, 6:40 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The Cowboys trailed in the final two minutes, and the game turned on one throw. With 1:37 left in the fourth quarter, Dak Prescott threw deep right to Ryan Flournoy for 46 yards, down to the Indianapolis 19. That one play moved Dallas's win probability by 29 points, the largest swing of the afternoon.

Two snaps later, Javonte Williams ran up the middle for 8 yards to the Indianapolis 11. A flag on the Colts for illegal use of hands, 5 yards, was enforced on top of it. That play was worth another 26 points of win probability. Dallas went on to finish the 27-23 win.

The Colts had just made a 50-yard field goal, which cost Dallas 21 points of win probability on its own. The Cowboys needed only two plays to take most of that back.

The swing

The other big swing came earlier in the fourth quarter. At 9:54, J.Taylor was stopped for a loss of 2 yards by Quinnen Williams and fumbled. S.James recovered at the Dallas 19 and returned it to the 30, worth 20 points of win probability. A 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Dallas was enforced on the play.

Turnovers were even, two for each team. The difference was what happened around them. Dallas ran 70 plays to Indianapolis's 59 and held the ball for 35:08 to the Colts' 24:17. The Colts went three-and-out on five of their 14 drives. They converted 3 of 13 third downs, and Dallas, at 5 of 16, was not much better.

The box score undersells how lopsided the yardage was. Dallas gained 509 yards to 271, 8.9 yards per pass to 4.6, and 5.5 yards per rush to 4.6. The scoreboard stayed close because the Cowboys committed 14 penalties for 153 yards, against 9 for 67 on the Colts, and because the offense finished only 2 of 3 in the red zone.

Who moved the needle

Prescott completed 21 of 34 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, a 114.2 passer rating. Expected points added, or EPA, adds up how much each snap raised or lowered the points a team could expect from that drive, and Prescott's 38 passing plays came to 8.2. Dallas averaged 0.215 EPA per dropback. Indianapolis averaged minus 0.258.

CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. That is 19.5 yards a catch. Flournoy had two catches for 53 yards, and his 46-yarder came on three targets. Jake Ferguson posted 4.6 EPA on only two plays, and Flournoy added 3.5 on three.

The run game produced yards without much EPA. Williams carried 20 times for 101 yards and a touchdown, 5.1 per carry, but his rushing EPA was minus 1.0. Tyler Goodson added 77 yards on 12 carries, 6.4 per carry. Dallas's overall rushing EPA per carry was 0.05. Prescott's lone designated run cost 2.7 EPA and was the worst play by that measure.

On defense, the Cowboys held Indianapolis to 105 rushing yards and minus 0.118 EPA per rush. Quinnen Williams had three tackles for loss and seven tackles in all. Rashan Gary had two tackles for loss and a sack among his six stops. Caleb Downs had a sack and two pass breakups. Malik Hooker made five solo tackles.

Where it leaves them

Dallas is 4-5 with a one-game winning streak and a point differential of plus 10, on 246 points scored and 236 allowed. The Cowboys are 3-2 on the road and 1-3 at home. They sit second in the NFC East behind the Giants at 5-2-1, ahead of the Commanders at 2-5-1 and the Eagles at 2-7. They rank 10th in the conference.

The next test is at home. The San Francisco 49ers visit on Sunday, Nov. 15, with a 4:25 PM ET kickoff on Fox. It is the Cowboys' fifth home game of the season, after a 1-3 start in Dallas.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.