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Cowboys DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Cowboys' No. 7 offense meets a Colts passing game ranked 31st

Dallas ranks seventh in EPA per play on offense and 31st on defense, and Indianapolis arrives with the 30th-ranked offense and a four-game losing streak.

atScouting ReportatLine DAL -5.5
By Cowboys Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 5:31 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

Dallas lost 33-30 to the Cardinals in Week 8, and the score fits the season. The Cowboys offense ranks seventh in EPA per play at 0.091, while the defense ranks 31st at 0.126 allowed per play. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much a snap moves the scoring outlook compared with an average play.

The Cowboys are 3-5 with a point differential of plus-6 (219 scored, 213 allowed). Indianapolis is 2-6 and has lost four straight, the latest a 42-7 defeat at Jacksonville. The Colts offense ranks 30th at -0.115 EPA per play, and their pass offense ranks 31st.

Where they can win it

The quarterback gap is the clearest edge. Dak Prescott has 0.15 EPA per play on 333 plays, with 1,985 yards and a 49 percent success rate. Daniel Jones sits at -0.20 on 299 plays, with 1,399 yards and a completion rate 3.7 points below what his throws were expected to produce. That is a gap of 0.35 EPA per play.

Prescott's targets are efficient. CeeDee Lamb has 709 yards, a 32 percent target share and 0.34 EPA per play. George Pickens has 533 yards and the team's best receiving mark at 0.41 per play, with a 56 percent success rate. The Colts pass defense ranks 22nd.

The ground game offers a different picture. Javonte Williams has 528 yards on 134 plays, but his 0.01 EPA per play says those yards have been roughly average in value. Indianapolis ranks 30th against the run, so Dallas has room to make that number move.

The worry

The Dallas defense is the problem the box score keeps understating. It ranks 29th against the run and 30th against the pass, and it has allowed 33, 23 and 24 points in three of the last four games. The Cowboys are 1-3 at home and 2-2 on the road.

Indianapolis does one thing well. The Colts rush offense ranks fourth, even with a 30th-ranked offense overall. Jonathan Taylor has 606 yards on 147 plays, but he is at -0.06 EPA per play with a 40 percent success rate, so the volume is better than the efficiency.

In the passing game, Keenan Allen has a 58 percent success rate on 50 targets and Josh Downs has 0.29 EPA per play. Jones has to find them against a Dallas pass defense ranked 30th.

Availability

KaVontae Turpin is out with a rib injury. Five Cowboys are questionable: Pickens (hamstring), tight end Jake Ferguson (ankle), linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring), cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (ankle) and linebacker Marist Liufau (forearm). Tight end Luke Schoonmaker (groin) is also questionable. Ferguson has -0.27 EPA per play on 25 targets.

Indianapolis lists cornerback Justin Walley (knee), safety A.J. Haulcy (ankle) and linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee) as out. Tackle Jalen Travis (thumb) is questionable.

Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium on Fox. The Giants lead the NFC East at 4-2-1, with Dallas second at 3-5.

The line has Dallas favored by 5.5 with a total of 51.5, a number that sets the market's expectation for scoring and does not change what the efficiency data shows.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.