Dolphins' deep, moving offense is not losing to bad luck, and one play cost 1.36 games

The most surprising number in the Lab is 1.36. That is how many games' worth of win probability the Miami Dolphins have lost to a single decisive play in their losses, against 0.38 saved by one play in their wins. The record is 1-7, and the film shows a team that keeps landing on the wrong side of one snap.

1.36: games lost to one play, 0.38 saved

The gap between those two numbers is 0.98 games. Three of the losses are ones a single play could have flipped. In the wins, one play barely moved the result. In the losses, one play swung the whole afternoon.

That is a different problem from being outclassed every week. It points to a handful of snaps in each close game where the offense or defense did not finish. Watch the Indianapolis Colts game for the same pattern: if it is tight in the fourth quarter, one snap will again carry the result.

Sliding Doors

73%: the shotgun pass rate, and a formation that hides it

Miami's offense has the most deep shots and the most pre-snap motion in the league. It throws on 73% of its shotgun snaps and 34% of its snaps under center. The motion and the downfield shots are the whole point of the spacing: move the defender, then attack the grass he left.

The formation tell ranks 23rd of 32 on the most-predictable-first scale. That means defenses get less help from the alignment than they do against most teams. The Colts will have to read the motion itself, because the formation alone will not tell them much.

Scheme DNA

1.5: the wins the Dolphins deserve, against 1

Miami has one win. The Deserved Standings table gives it 1.5 deserved wins and 6.5 deserved losses, a luck figure of minus-0.5. Both the real table and the deserved table put the Dolphins 15th in the conference, out of the playoff field on both.

So luck is not the main story. The Market vs Snaps tool shows a snaps-deserved margin of minus-7.6 points per game, a market-expected margin of minus-7.4, and a real margin of minus-9.2. The real result runs 1.6 points per game worse than the snaps say it should. That is a small slice, and most of the deficit is the team itself.

For context, the Colts are 3.5-point favorites in this game, a smaller number than the market's per-game expectation for Miami. The line is context only.

Deserved Standings

71%: the cap on the field, 28th of 32

Miami has put 71% of its cap on the field, which ranks 28th of 32 in value. Another $26.6 million sits on players who are not playing, and $8.1 million of that is on injured reserve.

The bargain is on the interior line. Zeek Biggers carries a $1.03 million cap hit, sits in the 24th percentile for pay and the 83rd for playing time, and has taken 60% of the snaps. The mismatch runs the other way for Kenneth Grant: a $4.99 million hit puts him in the 75th percentile for pay, while his playing time lands in the 41st.

Both are interior linemen, so the Colts' run game will show how the snaps are split up front.

Paid vs Played

What to watch

Miami visits Indianapolis on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The total is 38.5, a number that points to a low-scoring game. In a game like that, one decisive play is more likely to decide it.