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InjuryGarrett Wilson: Questionable → Out14 min agoRaiders DeskRaiders' deserved record is 3.6-5.4, and Ashton Jeanty's cap hit is the biggest gap36 min agoMinnesota VikingsLunchbreak: The Athletic Spotlights Uniqueness of Kirk Cousins; Vikings Midseason RecognitionsPatriots DeskPatriots have scored 21 two-minute points on drives worth 6 expected46 min agoLions DeskLions are 6-2, but the snaps say 4.7 wins and a seventh seed46 min agoInjuryJosh Jacobs: Questionable → Out46 min agoCleveland BrownsBrowns to honor military heroes during annual Salute to Service game against Houston Texans on Nov. 15Jets DeskJets are 2-7 but the numbers say 4.5-4.5, and the clock work is the gap55 min agoBears DeskBears are winning by 6.3 points a game and the market still has them at 1.956 min agoPittsburgh Steelers'There's nothing like this division'Pro Football RumorsBengals Open Practice Windows For Andrei Iosivas, Brian Parker II, Jalen DavisESPNBrowns' Jared Verse says he met with team psychiatrist to try to snap sack slumpKansas City ChiefsKansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons: ¿Cómo, cuándo y dónde ver la Semana 10 de la NFL 2026?Seattle SeahawksSeahawks Sign G Cordell Volson To Practice SquadESPNThree Jaguars trade deadline takeaways, from 'F them picks' to BTJ stayingDallas CowboysZero to 100: Williams on Zeke-like TD paceDallas CowboysScience Lab: Dear Cowboys, is the laundry done?InjuryRhamondre Stevenson: Questionable → Doubtful2 h agoInjuryJosh Jacobs: Out → Questionable2 h agoInjuryA.J. Brown: Out → Questionable2 h agoChicago BearsBears fans of the United KingdomEagles DeskThe Eagles are 2-7, and the snap data says the market still rates them too high2 h ago
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Raiders DeskThe Lab Report

Raiders' deserved record is 3.6-5.4, and Ashton Jeanty's cap hit is the biggest gap

Las Vegas is 4-5 and ranked 12th in the conference on the deserved table, with its clock work the one clear edge heading into Seattle.

Ashton JeantyThe Lab Report3.6Deserved wins · The LabRBAshton Jeanty
By Raiders Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 1:20 PM ET2 min read

The number that stands out is 92 against 24. Running back Ashton Jeanty sits in the 92nd percentile for cap hit and the 24th for playing time, the widest gap on the Raiders roster in our Paid vs Played read. The rest of the week 9 picture is a team a little worse than its record.

92nd percentile paid, 24th played: the Jeanty gap

Jeanty carries an $8.16 million cap hit. The club has spent $248.3 million of a $314.6 million league cap and puts 80 percent of it on the field, which ranks 18th of 32 for value. Another $43.4 million is tied up in players who are not playing, and $6.1 million of that is on injured reserve.

The best return runs the other way. Folorunso Fatukasi, an interior lineman, costs $1.08 million, sits at the 28th percentile in pay and the 66th in playing time, and takes 45 percent of the snaps. Seattle arrives with the Raiders paying premium money for a back who is not the volume player.

Paid vs Played

3.6 deserved wins: the record has a cushion

Las Vegas is 4-5. Our Deserved Standings credit it with 3.6 wins and 5.4 losses, so 0.4 of a win came from luck. The Raiders are ninth in the conference by real record and 12th by deserved record, and they are outside the playoff field on both tables.

A 0.4-win cushion is small, but in a conference this tight it is the gap between ninth and 12th. A loss at home Sunday would put the real record closer to what the underlying play says.

Deserved Standings

-5.2: the snaps are worse than the scoreboard

Over nine games the Raiders have a real margin of minus 3.3 points per game. The market expected minus 3.8, and a snap-by-snap model puts the deserved margin at minus 5.2. That is 1.4 points per game worse than the market, which ranks Las Vegas 22nd of 32 on the most-underrated-by-the-market list.

The Raiders are 6-3-0 against the closing spread, so the betting market has been roughly right about them and the snaps say it has been slightly generous. This week Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. That is the market's description of the matchup, and it sits close to the minus 5.2 the snaps suggest.

Market vs Snaps

15 points on 5.9 expected: Klint Kubiak's two-minute work

The clearest strength is the clock. Head coach Klint Kubiak has a Clock IQ score of 64 out of 99, seventh in the league. In seven two-minute drives the Raiders scored 15 points where the average drive of that kind would produce 5.9, a difference of 9.1.

The weak spot is small. The Raiders burn 0.78 timeouts per game against a league rate of 0.75. Seattle comes to Allegiant Stadium for a 4:05 PM ET kickoff on CBS on Sunday, Nov. 15, and the Raiders' margin for error is thin enough that a late-half drive is where they have been closing the gap.

Clock IQ

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.