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Lions DeskThe Lab Report

Lions are 6-2, but the snaps say 4.7 wins and a seventh seed

Detroit holds the third seed in the NFC, yet its snap-level results put it outside the field, with Dan Campbell's clock work holding the record up.

Playoff raceThe Lab Report4.7Deserved wins · The Lab
By Lions Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 1:10 PM ET2 min read

The most surprising number on the Lions this week is 4.7. That is how many wins their snaps deserve, against a real record of 6-2. Detroit sits third in the conference on the real table and seventh on the deserved one, in the playoff field on paper and out of it on the snaps.

1.3 wins: the luck sitting in the record

The gap is the whole story. Deserved Standings gives the Lions 4.7 wins and 3.3 losses through Week 9, which leaves 1.3 wins of luck in the 6-2 record. Only that cushion separates a top-three seed from a bubble team.

The margin tells the same story. Detroit has won by 4.1 points per game, but the snaps deserve 1.6, a difference of 2.5 points every Sunday. The Patriots arrive in Week 10 with a record that has been kinder than the film.

Read the full table at Deserved Standings.

1.6: the margin the snaps deserve, against 3.9 from the market

The betting market expected Detroit to win by 3.9 points per game over eight games. The snaps put the number at 1.6, which is 2.4 points lower than the market's view. Detroit ranks 27th of 32 on the list of teams the market underrates, so the market has been generous to the Lions, not harsh.

The results line up with that. The Lions are 3-4-1 against the closing spread. For Sunday, the posted number is Lions -2.5 with a total of 51.5, and it only gives a sense of scale for how the market sees the game. It does not point to a side.

The breakdown is at Market vs Snaps.

9 points: two-minute drives that beat the expectation by 6.7

Here is where the record has been earned. Dan Campbell's Clock IQ score is 65 out of 99, fourth in the league. In four two-minute drives, Detroit scored 9 points when the situations were worth 2.3 expected points.

The Lions also burn 0.25 timeouts per game, against a league average of 0.75. Fewer wasted stoppages mean more snaps in the drives that decide close games. If the Patriots game is tight late, this is the edge to watch.

The score and drive log are at Clock IQ.

88%: the shotgun pass rate that gives the offense away

Detroit runs the least shotgun in the league and the most play action. That identity has a cost. When the Lions do line up in shotgun, they throw 88 percent of the time. Under center the pass rate falls to 33 percent.

That split makes Detroit the second most predictable team in the league by formation, behind one other club. Defenses can read the call before the snap, and the play-action package only works if the run threat stays believable. The Patriots can line up against that tell.

The formation data is at Scheme DNA.

What to watch

The Lions host the Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 15, with a 9:30 AM ET kickoff on Fox. The check is simple: whether the late-game edge keeps covering for a margin that is 2.5 points a game thinner than the scoreboard shows, and whether shotgun snaps still mean a pass.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.