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Raiders DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Raiders' 28th-ranked defense meets the 49ers' top-ranked offense at Levi's Stadium

Las Vegas allows 0.078 EPA per play and travels to a 6-1 San Francisco team that will be without Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr.

Scouting ReportDefenseatLine SF -10
By Raiders Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 4:11 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Raiders defense ranks 28th in the league in EPA allowed per play, at 0.078. EPA is expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard. A positive number allowed means the offense is winning the play. The 49ers offense ranks first at 0.177 per play, with a 53 percent success rate.

Las Vegas is 4-4 and sits third in the AFC West. The Raiders have scored 221 points and allowed 230, a difference of minus 9. San Francisco is 6-1 with 197 scored and 139 allowed, a difference of plus 58, and holds the top seed in the conference.

The Raiders are 3-1 on the road and 1-3 at home. The 49ers are 4-0 at home.

Where they can win it

The Raiders pass offense ranks seventh, and the 49ers pass defense ranks 15th. That is the soft spot on the other side. Kirk Cousins has 2,062 yards at 0.16 EPA per play and a 48 percent success rate.

Brock Bowers is the best target on the roster: 547 yards, 0.53 EPA per target and a 60 percent success rate, with a 22 percent target share. Tre Tucker has 474 yards at 0.43 EPA per target. Michael Mayer has a 65 percent success rate on 43 targets.

The ground game is not the way in. The Raiders rush offense ranks 29th, and the 49ers rush defense ranks first. Ashton Jeanty has 337 yards on 108 plays at minus 0.31 EPA per play and a 31 percent success rate. Mike Washington Jr. has 278 yards on 65 plays, also at 31 percent.

Las Vegas scored 38 at the Jets last week in a 38-33 win. It has to score near that level again.

The worry

Points allowed are the problem. In the last four games the Raiders gave up 45 at the Patriots, 33 to the Bills, 35 to the Rams and 33 at the Jets. They went 1-3 in that stretch.

The pass defense ranks 27th and the rush defense ranks 24th, so there is no side of the ball to hide. San Francisco ranks second in pass offense and third in rush offense.

Brock Purdy has 1,710 yards at 0.29 EPA per play, with a completion rate 4.3 points above expectation. Christian McCaffrey has 389 yards at a 54 percent success rate. George Kittle has 425 yards at 0.35 EPA per target. The Raiders have to stop the run and the middle of the field at once.

Availability

San Francisco is down its two best-producing wide receivers. Mike Evans (Achilles) is out. He has 500 yards on 40 targets, 1.02 EPA per target and a 70 percent success rate. Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) is also out, with 126 yards on 20 targets. Brandon Aiyuk (personal) and Christian Kirk (knee) are out as well. Cornerback Upton Stout (shoulder) is questionable, and safety Siran Neal (knee) is questionable.

For Las Vegas, cornerback Darien Porter (groin) is questionable and a starter. Defensive tackle Thomas Booker IV (ankle) is out and is not a starter.

With Evans and Samuel out, Kittle and McCaffrey carry more of the passing game. Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox.

The market has San Francisco favored by 10 with a total of 51.5, context that matches a 67-point gap in season point differential between the teams.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.