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Bears DeskThe Lab Report

Bears are winning by 6.3 points a game and the market still has them at 1.9

Chicago is 7-2 and 6-3 against the closing spread, and the Lab tools say the record is earned, not borrowed.

MilestoneThe Lab Report6.8Deserved wins · The Lab
By Bears Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 1:00 PM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Bears file is 2.9 points. That is the gap per game between what snap-level play says Chicago deserves, a 4.8-point margin, and what the betting market expected, 1.9. The Bears rank eighth in the league among teams the market has underrated.

The real margin is 6.3 points a game over nine games. That puts the passing game's steady work on the scoreboard, and the tools below show how much of it holds up.

2.9 points: the market is still behind the film

The market's expected margin for Chicago is 1.9 points a game. Snaps say 4.8. The actual result is 6.3, a difference of 4.4 points over the market number. The Bears are 6-3-0 against the closing spread, which fits a team the price has been slow to follow.

Next up is the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, Nov. 22 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, with Chicago at home. The line is CHI -9.5 and the total is 48.5. Those are context. The point is that the gap between price and play is wide, and the Saints game is the next sample.

Market vs Snaps

6.8: the 7-2 record is almost exactly what the Bears deserve

Chicago has seven real wins and 6.8 deserved wins. Luck accounts for 0.2 of a win, which is close to nothing. The Bears sit second in the conference on the real table and second on the deserved table. They are in the playoff field on both.

That matters for a team built on dropbacks. A passing offense that wins with this little help from luck does not need a bounce to hold its place. The Saints game gives it another chance to show that.

Deserved Standings

63: Ben Johnson runs the clock better than most

Johnson scores 63 out of 99 on Clock IQ, eighth among the 32 head coaches. In two-minute drives the Bears have run 8 and scored 10 points, against 7.5 expected. That is 2.5 points above the model's number.

The timeouts back it up. Chicago burns 0.33 a game, and the league average is 0.75. A team that keeps its timeouts has them when a game gets tight in the fourth quarter. With a nine-and-a-half-point line against New Orleans, the Bears may not need them. They have shown they will have them if they do.

Clock IQ

82%: the cap is mostly on the field, with leaks

Chicago has spent $282.8 million against a league figure of $314.6 million, and 82 percent of it is on the field. That ranks 15th of 32 in value. The leaks are specific: $14.9 million sits on injured reserve, and $37 million is tied up in players who are not playing.

Kyle Monangai is the bargain. The running back carries a $1.04 million cap hit, in the 26th percentile of pay, yet he plays at the 94th percentile with 20 percent of the snaps. Kyler Gordon is the other end. The cornerback's $12.91 million hit is in the 95th percentile of pay, and his playing time is in the 51st.

The Saints will test that secondary. How much Gordon plays on Nov. 22 is the number to check against the cap table.

Paid vs Played

The Bears host New Orleans in Week 11 on Fox, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, Nov. 22.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.