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Jets DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Jets run defense meets the Chiefs rushing attack without Garrett Wilson on offense

New York's sixth-ranked run defense faces Kansas City's second-ranked ground game while the offense loses its top target.

Garrett WilsonScouting ReportatLine KC -9.5WRGarrett Wilson
By Jets Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:11 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Jets reach Arrowhead Stadium at 2-6, on a three-game losing streak, with a point differential of -18. The Chiefs are 5-2 at +36 but have lost two straight, 24-28 at Denver and 3-20 at Seattle.

New York's offense produces 0.044 EPA per play, 11th in the league, with a 46 percent success rate. EPA is expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoring outlook. Kansas City's offense sits at 0.126, fourth, with a 48 percent success rate.

The defenses are further apart. The Jets allow 0.023 EPA per play and a 45 percent success rate, 19th in the league. The Chiefs allow -0.034 and 40 percent, 11th, a five-point gap in success allowed.

Where they can win it

The best chance is on the ground. The Jets rank sixth against the run, and Kansas City ranks second in rushing offense. Kenneth Walker III has 770 yards on 141 plays, at 0.07 EPA per play and a 45 percent success rate. That is solid volume without much surplus value, which gives a run defense room to make him earn it.

The pass side is harder. New York is 26th in pass defense, and Patrick Mahomes is at 0.15 EPA per play with a 49 percent success rate and 1,743 yards. Travis Kelce has been the most efficient target, at 0.52 EPA per play and a 60 percent success rate on 42 plays.

The Jets offense has pieces that work. Geno Smith is at 0.13 EPA per play with a 49 percent success rate and 1,723 yards. Adonai Mitchell is at 0.71 EPA per play and a 59 percent success rate on 27 plays. Mason Taylor is at 0.21 on 24 plays.

The worry

Garrett Wilson is out with a concussion. He holds a 28 percent target share and has 527 yards at 0.39 EPA per play, the biggest role of any Jets receiver. Mitchell and Taylor each hold a smaller share, 12 percent and 10 percent.

The defense has not been able to cover for an offense that keeps stalling. The Jets scored 33 against the Raiders and lost by five. They scored 25 against the Dolphins and lost by three. They scored 19 at New England and lost by seven.

The drive killers are visible in the rushing data. Breece Hall is at -0.17 EPA per play with a 33 percent success rate over 51 plays. Kenyon Sadiq is at -0.22 on 27 plays. Braelon Allen carries the load, with 565 yards on 112 plays, but he is at 0.01 EPA per play and a 44 percent success rate, so those yards rarely move the scoring outlook.

Availability

New York is without Wilson and starting linebacker Trevin Wallace, who is out with a groin injury. Cornerback Nahshon Wright and defensive end Joseph Ossai are also out. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is questionable with an ankle injury. Max Mitchell and VJ Payne are on injured reserve.

Kansas City starting cornerback Mansoor Delane is out with a shoulder injury, which matters for a pass defense ranked 14th. Receiver Nikko Remigio, a starter, is questionable with a hip injury. Defensive tackles Peter Woods and Omarr Norman-Lott are out.

Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. The Jets have to get through Walker and the Kansas City ground game with the sixth-ranked run defense, and they have to do it with Smith throwing to a receiver group that no longer includes Wilson.

Kansas City opened as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5, a number that reflects the 54-point gap in season point differential between the teams.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.