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Packers DeskBy the Numbers

Packers ran more on early downs in Week 9 and posted their best EPA of the year

Green Bay passed on 49% of early downs against a season high of 80%, and Christian Watson and Jordan Love drove the best offensive day of the season.

Jordan LoveBy the Numbers+0.29Offense EPA/play · Week 9QBJordan Love
By Packers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 3:11 PM ET3 min read

49%: the early-down pass rate hit its season low in the best offensive week

In Week 9 the Packers threw on 49% of their early-down snaps, the lowest figure of the nine weeks. Week 3 was the other end at 80%, and the offense finished that game at 0.014 EPA per play. EPA, expected points added, assigns every snap a point value by comparing the scoring outlook before the play with the outlook after it.

Week 9 produced 0.289 EPA per play, against a season average of 0.038. That is a gap of 0.251 and the best mark of the year. The success rate was 46%, in line with Week 4 and Week 8 rather than a spike.

Green Bay's pass offense ranks sixth in the league. The rush offense ranks 31st. A lighter pass rate on first and second down only helps if the run game gives the offense something back.

31st: the run game still has not paid for the carries

The ground numbers explain why the rank is so low. Over the last three weeks Josh Jacobs has 36 plays at minus 0.19 EPA per play and a 33% success rate, for 80 yards. Kaleb Johnson has 14 plays at minus 0.04 and a 50% success rate, for 68 yards.

On the season, MarShawn Lloyd has 57 rushing plays at minus 0.35 EPA per play, and Johnson has 42 at minus 0.32. Johnson's recent line is a step up from his season mark, but on a small sample.

The offensive line has also been reshuffled. John Williams played 100% of the snaps in Week 9 after playing none in Week 6, and Aaron Banks reached 70% after sitting at 0% in Week 7.

24%: Christian Watson is the most efficient target, and not the most-targeted

Matthew Golden takes the largest share of targets, 32% over the last three weeks and 28% on the season. His efficiency is modest: 0.15 EPA per play and a 49% success rate in the recent stretch, with 287 yards.

Watson has 24% of the targets in that span and 0.81 EPA per play with a 62% success rate, for 341 yards. His season line is 0.61 EPA per play on a 22% share. Tucker Kraft is next at 0.79 EPA per play on a 14% share over three weeks.

The offense is built around Golden's volume, but Watson and Kraft are producing more per target. Jacobs is also in the mix with a 12% share and 0.21 EPA per play.

10.4: Jordan Love is completing passes well above expectation

Love's completion percentage over expected, or CPOE, is 10.4 over the last three weeks. That compares his completions with what the difficulty of each throw would predict. His season figure is 1.1, a difference of 9.3.

Over those three weeks he has 120 plays at 0.32 EPA per play and a 48% success rate, with 901 yards. His season line is 0.18 EPA per play on 361 plays and 2,519 yards.

What to watch Sunday

Green Bay is 6-3 and sits fourth in the NFC North behind the Bears at 7-2, the Lions at 6-2 and the Vikings at 6-2. The Packers hold the seventh seed.

The Minnesota Vikings visit Lambeau Field on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The Packers are 3-1 at home. The Vikings arrive with the same 6-2 record as Detroit, and the Packers' early-down pass rate is the number to track from the first snap.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.