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Steelers DeskBy the Numbers

Jaylen Warren and the run game carry a Steelers offense still asking questions

Pittsburgh ranks first in rushing and 26th in passing, and its defense has held a top-eight ranking against both.

Jaylen WarrenBy the Numbers+0.13Offense EPA/play · Week 8RBJaylen Warren
By Steelers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 3:20 PM ET2 min read

0.29: Jaylen Warren is producing on the ground

Over the last three weeks Jaylen Warren has 35 carries for 244 yards, a 57% success rate and an EPA per play of 0.29. EPA, expected points added, measures how much a play changes a team's expected scoring, and zero is average. His season mark is 0.13 on 119 plays and 704 yards.

Pittsburgh ranks first in rush offense and 26th in pass offense. Rico Dowdle has taken a larger share of the work, with his snaps rising from 27% in week 6 to 47% in week 8. In the last three weeks he has 24 carries for 97 yards at 0.07 EPA per play.

45%: the early-down pass rate is down 22 points since week 4

The Steelers passed on 67% of early downs in week 4 and 45% in week 8. The rate was 62% in week 1 and 65% in week 2, when the offense posted EPA per play of -0.303 and -0.356.

The shift has coincided with steadier output. The offense posted 0.123 EPA per play in week 7 and 0.131 in week 8, with success rates of 46% and 47%. The season mark is still -0.027 per play, 19th in the league, with a 42% success rate.

0: Aaron Rodgers is breaking even, and the targets are uneven

Aaron Rodgers has an EPA per play of 0 over the last three weeks, on 59 plays and 356 yards. His season mark is -0.1 on 312 plays and 1,684 yards. His completion percentage over expected, CPOE, is -6.4 in the last three weeks and -1.9 for the year.

DK Metcalf holds a 24% target share but has an EPA per play of -0.31 and an 8% success rate on 12 plays in that stretch. Germie Bernard has a 20% share over the same weeks and a 45% success rate on the season.

Pat Freiermuth has the best numbers among the pass catchers at 0.23 EPA per play and a 54% success rate on 35 plays. His snap share fell from 72% in week 6 to 53% in week 8.

-0.074: the defense is the steady unit

The Steelers allow -0.074 EPA per play, seventh in the league. A negative number is good for a defense. They rank eighth against the pass and fourth against the run, and they allow a 42% success rate.

The weekly results swing. The defense allowed 0.281 EPA per play in week 3 and -0.304 in week 6, then -0.275 in week 8. Along the front, Kevin Jobity went from 9% of snaps in week 7 to 29% in week 8, and Jack Sawyer from 28% in week 6 to 47% in week 8.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 with a four-game winning streak, a 180-144 scoring edge and the fourth seed in the conference. The Steelers are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road.

Next up is a trip to Cincinnati on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 8:20 PM ET on NBC. The Bengals are also 6-2, so the game is between the two teams at the top of the AFC North.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.