Seahawks lean on a No. 4 pass defense with Sam Darnold out against Arizona

Sam Darnold is out with a quadriceps injury, and Seattle's offense, 24th in the league in EPA per play, will play Arizona without its starting quarterback. EPA is expected points added: how many points a play gained or cost against what the offense could expect before the snap. The Seahawks sit at minus-0.054.

The matchup in numbers

The Seahawks (4-4) host the Cardinals (3-5) on Sunday, Nov. 8, at 4:25 PM ET on Fox from Lumen Field. Seattle has outscored opponents 185-159, a plus-26 point differential. Arizona is at minus-63.

The gap shows up on defense. Seattle allows minus-0.087 EPA per play, fifth in the league, and holds opponents to a 39 percent success rate. Arizona allows plus-0.073, ranked 26th, with opponents succeeding on 43 percent of plays.

The offenses look closer. The Cardinals are at minus-0.022 EPA per play, 19th, with a 44 percent success rate. Seattle's success rate is 41 percent.

Where they can win it

The Seahawks' pass defense ranks fourth. Arizona's pass offense ranks 23rd. Jacoby Brissett has thrown 331 plays for 1,601 yards at minus-0.06 EPA per play, and his completion rate over expectation is minus-0.3.

Trey McBride is the Cardinals' best option. He has 544 yards on 86 plays, a 60 percent success rate and 0.29 EPA per play, with 27 percent of the targets. Seattle's rush defense is 10th, and Arizona has lost its leading rusher, Jeremiyah Love (268 yards on 76 plays), to injured reserve.

On the other side, Arizona's pass defense ranks 31st. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the Seahawks' answer, and the numbers are loud: 985 yards, 0.72 EPA per play, a 65 percent success rate and 35 percent of the targets. Cooper Kupp adds 206 yards at 0.27 EPA per play.

The worry

Seattle ranks 30th in rushing offense, and Arizona's rush defense ranks seventh. Emanuel Wilson has 403 yards on 111 plays at minus-0.15 EPA per play with a 36 percent success rate. Jadarian Price is at minus-0.39 on 38 plays.

That leaves the passing game to carry an offense that already scored 17 in a 34-17 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Seattle also lost 14-17 at Denver in Week 6 and 29-32 to San Francisco in Week 5, both by three points. The defense has kept the Seahawks close; the offense has not always finished.

Arizona is not simple to dismiss either. The Cardinals beat the Cowboys 33-30 last week and won 18-16 at the Rams in Week 6. They are 3-2 on the road and 0-3 at home.

Availability

Seattle's list is long. Darnold, defensive tackle Leonard Williams, receiver Rashid Shaheed and linebacker Uchenna Nwosu are all out, and all four are starters. Defensive tackle Brandon Pili, tackle Charles Cross and guard Quenton Nelson are also out. Linebacker Connor O'Toole is questionable with a foot injury.

Shaheed has 163 yards on 31 targets at minus-0.45 EPA per play, so his absence changes the target mix less than Williams and Nwosu leaving the front seven.

Arizona lists defensive tackle Walter Nolen III and cornerback Max Melton as questionable, both starters. Running back Bam Knight, guard Jon Gaines II and tackle Jayden Williams are out. Running backs James Conner and Love, guard Isaiah Adams and receiver Kendrick Bourne are on injured reserve.

Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET Sunday, when Seattle's fourth-ranked pass defense faces the offense ranked 23rd through the air. Seattle is listed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5, context for how the market reads a low-scoring game and not a pick.