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Chargers DeskThe Lab Report

Chargers' 0-8 record is no fluke: the snaps say they are 10.7 points a game worse

Los Angeles is 0-7-1 against the closing spread, and the underlying margin sits far closer to the results than to the market.

MilestoneThe Lab Report1Deserved wins · The Lab
By Chargers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 10:10 AM ET2 min read

The market has been wrong about the Chargers by eight points a game. Through eight games it expected Los Angeles to lose by 2.7 per game. The snaps say 10.7, and the real margin is 12.2.

8 points: the market never caught up

The market expected a margin of minus 2.7 per game. Snap-level play deserved minus 10.7. The gap is 8 points, and it ranks the Chargers 31st of 32 among teams the market has underrated, which puts them near the top of the list of teams it has overrated.

The results confirm the snaps. The real margin of minus 12.2 sits 1.5 points from the deserved number. Against the closing spread the Chargers are 0-7-1.

Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite Monday night, with a total of 38.5. Those are context, not picks. They are, however, numbers the market has missed on all season. Read Market vs Snaps before trusting any of them.

1 win: the record is bad and the table agrees

Los Angeles is 0-8. Its deserved record is 1-7, so luck has cost it one win, no more. In the conference the Chargers rank 16th on the real table and 16th on the deserved one.

The playoff picture reads the same on both tables: out of the field. No schedule-softening argument changes that, because the deserved standings already strip out bounces and sequencing.

The Ravens will not be a lucky draw for a team that lands in the same slot either way. The full table is at Deserved Standings.

1.64 games: three losses hinged on one play

One decisive play in each loss cost the Chargers 1.64 games' worth of win probability. Three of the eight losses could have flipped on a single snap.

The other side of the ledger is empty. One decisive play in wins saved 0 games' worth, because there are no wins to save. Close games have gone one way all year.

That is the best case for a turnaround: three games sat near the line. It is also a narrow one, since the snap data puts the typical game at more than ten points from even. The plays are catalogued at Sliding Doors.

84%: the cap is mostly on the field, and the bargains are in the secondary

The Chargers have spent $259.2 million against a league cap of $314.6 million. Of that, 84 percent is on the field, which ranks 7th of 32 in value. The waste is concentrated. Injured reserve holds $15.8 million, and another $26.9 million sits with players who are not playing.

The best deal is Tarheeb Still, a cornerback at $1.17 million who has taken 97 percent of the snaps. He sits in the 37th percentile for pay and the 90th for playing time.

The worst is Tyler Biadasz, a center at $4.25 million. His pay ranks in the 73rd percentile, his playing time in the 0th. Still gets his next test against a Baltimore offense that Los Angeles must slow without a lead to protect. The roster math is at Paid vs Played.

The Chargers visit M&T Bank Stadium on Monday, Nov. 16, at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN. The forecast is 45 degrees, 4 mph wind and a 0 percent chance of rain, and the 548 similar games since 2000 averaged 44.8 points.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.