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Commanders DeskThe Verdict

Commanders lost to the Rams 20-13 and the snaps say the margin should have been wider

Washington's offense lost 0.2 expected points per snap, and its punts on fourth-and-short cost 1.2 expected points on one call alone.

OffenseThe VerdictDeservedDeserved 5% · Week 9
By Commanders Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 10:20 AM ET2 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Commanders win 5% of the time. The snaps gave them a 5% chance against the Rams, and the deserved margin was Rams by 9.3 points. The final was Rams 20, Commanders 13, a seven-point gap, so the scoreboard was 2.3 points kinder than the film. This was a deserved loss, and the Rams earned it.

What the score hid

Washington's offense averaged -0.2 EPA per snap. EPA is expected points added: how much each play moves the scoring outlook for the drive. The Rams averaged 0.02, so they were barely positive, and that was still 0.22 better.

Success rate told the same story at 39% for the Commanders and 43% for the Rams. Neither offense ran cleanly, but Washington's was the one that stalled more often.

Luck points leaned Washington's way, 3.4 to -4.3 for the Rams. A gap that size can hide a bigger loss, and here it kept the score close.

The swing play belonged to Los Angeles. At 12:57 of the fourth quarter, M.Stafford threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to P.Nacua from shotgun. It added 17 percentage points of win probability for the Rams, the largest single move of the game.

The calls

The flags did not decide this. All four of the heaviest went against the Rams and benefited Washington: offensive pass interference for 10 yards in the third quarter at 2:06 (7 points of win probability), defensive offside for 5 yards at 0:31 of the fourth (6), unnecessary roughness for 15 yards in the second quarter at 12:25 (4) and defensive offside in the first quarter at 10:50 (4). The Commanders got help and still lost.

The fourth-down decisions were the real problem. Dan Quinn punted on fourth-and-1 from 71 yards out in the third quarter at 9:34, and the model graded that a clear miss worth 1.2 expected points. He also punted on fourth-and-3 at midfield (53 yards out) in the second quarter and fourth-and-5 on the next possession, 0.7 and 0.3 points lost, with the model preferring to go both times. Another third-quarter punt on fourth-and-3 was a tossup.

The field goal from the 23 on fourth-and-6 in the third quarter was the right call, as was the early kick on fourth-and-4. The pattern was a coach who kicked when the math said kick and punted when it said go.

The trend

Washington is 2-5-1 and the record matches the play. The deserved-win total is 2.5, so luck wins stand at 0, 16th of 32 among the luckiest teams. The one-score record is 1-3.

The Chicken Index is where Quinn's fourth-down record stands out. The model recommended going 12 times in 47 graded fourth downs, and Washington went on 4 of them. That is a 67% Chicken Index, sixth most timid of 32, with 6.9 expected points lost on fourth down and 3 clear misses.

The season luck sheet totals 17.1 points, including 4 from fumble recoveries and 1.6 from opposing kickers. The flag ledger runs positive too, a net 41 points of win probability even with 61 penalties for 468 yards against. Net EPA per snap is -0.075, 23rd in the league. The record is not unlucky, and the fourth-down numbers are the part Quinn controls.

Washington plays at the New York Giants on Thursday, Nov. 12, at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.