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Ravens DeskThe Verdict

Ravens were outplayed on every snap in a deserved 33-10 loss to the Jaguars

The snaps gave Baltimore a 0% chance against Jacksonville, and the Ravens' fourth-down calls were not the reason.

The VerdictDeservedDeserved 0% · Week 9
By Ravens Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 1:01 PM ET2 min read

The verdict

The snaps gave the Ravens a 0% chance. Played like that, Baltimore does not beat Jacksonville, and the model had the Jaguars winning by 19.0 points with a deserved win probability above 99%. The 33-10 final at home in Week 9 was earned. It was not a coin flip, and nobody was robbed.

The Ravens' offense managed a success rate of 32%. The Jaguars' was 46%.

What the score hid

The score hid very little, and what it hid went the Ravens' way. Luck points, which measure how much the bounces and breaks moved the result, favored Baltimore by 4.3 and cost Jacksonville 6.7. The Ravens still lost by 23.

EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap moved the scoreboard compared with an average snap from that spot. The Ravens finished at -0.37 EPA per snap. The Jaguars finished at 0.11. That gap shows up on every down and in every quarter.

The swing play came early. On the second snap-count of the game's opening quarter, at 14:17, T.Lawrence threw deep right to N.Boerkircher for 52 yards to the Baltimore 21, with M.Humphrey in coverage. It added 14 percentage points of win probability for Jacksonville and set the terms for the afternoon.

The calls

Head coach Jesse Minter did not lose this game on fourth down. All four graded decisions matched the model. He kicked a field goal on fourth-and-6 from the 35 in the first quarter, punted on fourth-and-11 and fourth-and-9 in the second, and went for it on fourth-and-1 from 71 yards out at 4:37 of the second quarter. That last call was rated clear, and it converted.

The flags did hurt. A neutral zone infraction on Baltimore at 4:25 of the first quarter cost the Ravens 10 percentage points of win probability and gave Jacksonville 5 yards. The Ravens got some back when Jacksonville was flagged for defensive pass interference at 3:07 of the second quarter, a 7-point swing worth 9 yards.

The larger problem is not a coaching one. The offense never gave the fourth-down model anything to work with.

The trend

Baltimore is 4-5 with 4.2 deserved wins, so the record is almost exactly what the snaps support. Luck wins stand at -0.2, 20th among the 32 teams ranked luckiest first. The Ravens are 3-2 in one-score games and have won one game while playing lucky. Total luck points for the season are -6.2, and opponent kicking accounts for -4.1 of that.

The Ravens' season-long net EPA per snap is -0.014, which ranks 19th of 32. That is a middle-of-the-pack team, and Sunday looked like a bad day for one.

Minter's season on fourth down is mixed. The Chicken Index, the share of recommended go-for-it chances a coach declined, is 33%, which ranks 23rd among the 32 most timid teams. Baltimore went on 6 of the 9 fourth downs where the model said go, with one clear miss and 3 expected points lost across 41 graded decisions. Flags remain a drag: 74 penalties for 539 yards, a net swing of -60 percentage points of win probability.

The next test is the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday, Nov. 16 at 8:15 PM ET on ESPN, in Baltimore.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.