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Colts DeskThe Verdict

Colts lost by four but played like a team that loses by two touchdowns

The snaps gave Indianapolis a 1% chance against Dallas, and two punts on short fourth downs cost them more than the final score shows.

The VerdictDeservedDeserved 1% · Week 9
By Colts Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 10, 12:20 PM ET3 min read

The verdict

Played like that, the Colts win 1% of the time. The snaps said Dallas by 13.8 points, and the Cowboys took the game 27-23 at home in Indianapolis. This was a deserved loss, and the four-point margin flatters the Colts.

The Colts finished with an EPA per snap of -0.16 against 0.14 for Dallas. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap moved the scoreboard compared with what an average team would expect from that field position and down. Indianapolis lost ground on the average play. Dallas gained it.

What the score hid

The success rate was close: 44% for the Colts, 46% for the Cowboys. The gap came from what each team did with its good plays. The Colts did not turn enough of them into points.

Luck points tell the same story from another side. The Colts picked up 3.6 in this game, and the Cowboys lost 4.8. Without that tilt the game would have been wider.

The swing came late. With 1:37 left in the fourth quarter, D.Prescott threw deep right to R.Flournoy for 46 yards to the Indianapolis 19, with A.Gardner in coverage. That one throw added 29 percentage points to Dallas's win probability.

The flags piled up on the same drive. Intentional grounding on the Colts at 1:03 cost 12 yards and 14 points of win probability. Illegal use of hands at 1:19 cost 5 yards and 10 points. Earlier, offensive holding at 6:48 cost 10 yards and another 10 points. The one big flag for Indianapolis was a 40-yard pass interference call on Dallas at 10:48, worth 12 points of win probability.

The calls

Head coach Shane Steichen punted on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 in the first quarter. The model said go, and the call cost 0.6 expected points. In the second quarter he punted on fourth-and-1 from his own 20 with the model calling a clear go. That one cost 1.2 expected points, the biggest miss of the day.

Steichen also punted on fourth-and-4 early in the third quarter, a tossup worth 0.1 points. In the fourth quarter he kicked a field goal on fourth-and-4 from the Dallas 41 with 6:01 left. The model leaned toward going, and the kick cost 0.2 expected points. The kick was good, but it left a four-point deficit that a touchdown would have erased.

The other three fourth downs, two punts and a field goal, matched the model. The problem was the short-yardage punts, and a team that moves the ball no better than this one needs those extra possessions.

The trend

Indianapolis is 2-7 with 2.8 deserved wins, so the record is 0.8 wins worse than the snaps support. That ranks 26th of 32 in luck, with the luckiest team first. The Colts are 1-4 in one-score games, and fumble recoveries (-1.6) and opponent kicking (-2.7) have pushed their season luck total to -10.4 points.

The Chicken Index puts Steichen at 47%, 15th of 32 with the most timid first. He has gone for it 9 times when the model recommended going, out of 17. Those fourth downs have cost 6.5 expected points, including 3 clear misses.

The flags have hurt too. The Colts have been penalized 54 times for 392 yards, a net swing of -17 points of win probability. Their net EPA per snap of -0.173 ranks 29th of 32.

The Colts host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS in Week 10.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.