Falcons were outplayed on nearly every snap in a 34-17 loss to the Bengals

The verdict

Played like that, the Falcons win 3% of the time. The snaps gave the Bengals a 97% chance, and a deserved margin of 10.2 points. The 34-17 final was wider than that, but the direction was right. Cincinnati earned this one.

What the score hid

The score did not hide much. Cincinnati averaged 0.35 expected points added per snap, a measure of how much each play moves the scoreboard compared with an average play from that spot. Atlanta averaged 0.09, a gap of 0.26 on every snap. The Bengals also won the success rate, 54% to 47%.

The swing play came early. In the first quarter, with 8:55 on the clock, J.Burrow threw deep right to J.Chase for a 47-yard touchdown out of the shotgun. That single throw moved Cincinnati's win probability by 13 points, and Atlanta spent the rest of the afternoon chasing it.

Luck did not rescue the Falcons or explain the loss. The game's luck points ran 2.5 for the Bengals and minus 1.8 for Atlanta, a small tilt toward the visitors on top of the better play.

The calls

The two graded fourth downs were both fine. In the first quarter, on fourth-and-13 from the 13-yard line with 3:00 left, Atlanta kicked a field goal, which was the model's choice and a clear one. In the second quarter, on fourth-and-6 from 65 yards out, the Falcons punted at 10:53, which the model also preferred, though only as a lean.

The flags split the work. Atlanta got a 16-yard pass interference call in the third quarter at 7:08, worth 6 points of win probability, and a first-quarter offside at 7:18 worth 5. Against that, two offensive holding calls on Atlanta cost 10 yards apiece, in the second quarter at 2:47 and the fourth at 12:13, each worth 4. The officials were not the story.

The judgment on Kevin Stefanski comes from the season, not this game. Across 37 graded fourth downs, the model recommended going seven times, and Atlanta went three. That is a Chicken Index of 57%. The two clear misses and the 6.2 expected points lost on fourth down are the cost of a conservative habit that did not show up Sunday because the situations did not call for it.

The trend

Atlanta is 3-6, and the snaps say 2.9 deserved wins. The luck sheet shows 0.1 wins of luck, which ranks 15th of 32 teams, the middle of the pack. The Falcons are not a team the schedule has wronged. They are 0-3 in one-score games, yet the data lists no games robbed and no games won while lucky.

The season-long picture matches Sunday: net EPA per snap of minus 0.097, 24th in the league. Fumble recovery luck has helped by 1.1 points and opponent kicking by 2.6, for 6.7 total luck points. Flags have been a wash, with 60 penalties for 538 yards and a net swing of minus 1% in win probability.

The next test is Week 10 at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Atlanta has gone for it on fourth down in three of seven spots where the model said go, and that count will keep moving with each game.