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Cardinals DeskBy the Numbers

Cardinals offense sits 21st in EPA per play as Minshew II takes every snap

Arizona's early-down passing has not produced first downs at a steady rate, and the quarterback job changed hands in Week 9.

Gardner Minshew IIBy the Numbers-0.19Offense EPA/play · Week 9QBGardner Minshew II
By Cardinals Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 3:10 PM ET2 min read

43%: the offense succeeds on fewer than half its snaps

The Cardinals are 3-6 with a success rate of 43% and an EPA per play of -0.036, which ranks 21st. EPA, expected points added, credits or debits every snap by how much it changes the points an offense can expect from that spot on the field. A negative number means the drive is losing ground on average.

The split matters. The pass offense ranks 24th and the rush offense 14th. The defense is no cushion: it ranks 26th in EPA allowed and 31st against the pass, though it is 7th against the run. Arizona has been outscored 255 to 178.

67%: early-down passing is not buying first downs

In Weeks 5, 7 and 8 the Cardinals threw on 67%, 67% and 65% of early downs. The offense's success rate in those games was 44%, 33% and 39%. In Week 6 the early-down pass rate was 44%, and the success rate was 49%.

Week 9 came back to 58% with a 41% success rate and an EPA per play of -0.188. Heavy passing has not been the problem every week, since Week 3 produced a 54% success rate at a 63% pass rate. Over the last three games, though, more throws have meant fewer successful plays.

-0.25: Jacoby Brissett's last three weeks fell well below his season line

Brissett's season EPA per play is -0.06 with a 44% success rate and a CPOE of -0.3. CPOE is completion percentage over expected, the gap between his completion rate and what the throws should have produced. Over the last three weeks, on 82 plays, those figures are -0.25, 30% and -7.4.

The snaps moved with the numbers. Brissett took 100% of the snaps in Week 6 and 58% in Week 8. Gardner Minshew II went from 42% in Week 8 to 100% in Week 9. Minshew's season numbers are not in this data, so the Rams game is the first read on whether the rhythm changes.

0.50: Trey McBride is the one steady source of efficiency

McBride has an EPA per play of 0.29 and a 61% success rate on the season, with a 27% target share. In the last three weeks he is at 0.50 and 66% on 29 plays, for 237 yards. Michael Wilson has moved from 0.02 on the season to 0.27 over the same stretch, with 226 yards and a 26% target share.

The ground game has not offered the same lift. Tyler Allgeier has a 31% success rate over the last three weeks on 36 carries, for 212 yards. Jeremiyah Love is at 41% for the season, with an EPA per play of -0.15.

What to watch next

Arizona hosts the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:05 PM ET on CBS. The Rams are 5-4 and sit two spots ahead of the Cardinals in the NFC West. Arizona is 0-3 at home and 3-3 on the road, and the Cardinals defense ranks 31st against the pass. Minshew's first start since taking all of the Week 9 snaps comes against that opponent.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.