Tee Higgins leads a Bengals passing tree facing a Falcons offense ranked 28th

The matchup in numbers

Tee Higgins has 0.84 EPA per play on 62 targets, with 726 yards and a 24 percent target share. EPA is expected points added, the points a play gains or loses against what an average play from that spot would produce. No Cincinnati pass catcher has a better number.

The Bengals are 5-2, winners of three straight, and their offense ranks fifth in EPA per play at 0.115 with a 50 percent success rate. Joe Burrow has 2,019 yards on 290 plays at 0.23 EPA per play and a 54 percent success rate. His completion percentage is 9 points above what the throws were expected to produce.

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-5, and their offense ranks 28th in EPA per play at -0.095. Their pass offense ranks 29th. Their defense is better than the record: 10th in EPA allowed at -0.035, with the pass defense 11th.

Where they can win it

Cincy's tree has more than one trunk. Higgins holds 24 percent of the targets, and the receiver just behind him holds 23 percent on 61 targets, with 492 yards and 0.46 EPA per play. Mike Gesicki is the third option at 9 percent, and he has been efficient on his 24 targets: 0.79 EPA per play, a 71 percent success rate and 241 yards.

The Bengals' pass offense ranks fifth against a Falcons pass defense ranked 11th. That is the matchup to chase, because the ground game is not carrying the offense. Cincinnati's rush offense ranks 22nd, and Chase Brown has 94 carries at -0.17 EPA per play with a 37 percent success rate.

Brown is also the third name in the passing tree, with a 16 percent share on 42 targets. He has produced -0.32 EPA per play on those, so every throw to him has cost the offense points on average. Recent form supports the passing lean: the Bengals scored 43 against the Titans in Week 8 and 35 at the Ravens in Week 7.

The worry

The defense is the soft side of the ledger. Cincinnati ranks 15th in EPA allowed at -0.008, with the pass defense 13th and the rush defense 21st. The Bengals have given up 158 points in seven games, and the Titans reached 36 last week.

That rush defense meets Bijan Robinson, who has 780 yards on 150 carries for the Falcons. His per-play numbers are modest at -0.03 EPA and a 45 percent success rate, but Atlanta's rush offense ranks 10th, well ahead of its pass offense.

In the air, Michael Penix Jr. has 1,232 yards at 0.02 EPA per play, and his completion percentage is 4.3 points below expectation. Drake London takes 29 percent of Atlanta's targets, with 638 yards and 0.39 EPA per play on 63 targets. Atlanta lost 0-16 at the Buccaneers last week, so the tree there is narrow and the other targets have not been efficient: Jahan Dotson sits at -0.18 EPA per play.

Availability

Cincinnati lists Kyle Dugger (S, quadriceps) as out and Cedric Johnson (DE, ankle) as questionable. Neither is marked a starter. Erick All Jr., Cashius Howell and Andrei Iosivas are on injured reserve.

Atlanta has more starters in doubt. Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, hamstring) and Zachariah Branch (WR, hamstring) are out. James Pearce Jr. (back) and Divine Deablo (forearm), both starting linebackers, are questionable. Anterio Thompson (DT) is out and not listed as a starter.

Kickoff is Sunday, Nov. 8, at 9:30 AM ET at Santiago Bernabéu, on NFL Net.

The Bengals are listed as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 52.5, context for how the market reads a Cincinnati offense against an Atlanta defense that ranks 10th.