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Bengals DeskBy the Numbers

Bengals passing tree leans on Chase and Higgins as the backfield sputters

Cincinnati's offense ranks third in EPA per play, and the last three weeks show who is driving it and who is not.

CINTee HigginsBy the Numbers+0.35Offense EPA/play · Week 9WRTee Higgins
By Bengals Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 11, 6:00 PM ET2 min read

34%: Chase's target share jumped nine points

Over the last three weeks Chase has drawn 34% of Cincinnati's targets, up from 25% for the season. The 35 targets have produced 358 yards, 0.65 EPA per play and a 66% success rate. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoreboard compared with an average play from the same spot.

That is the largest slice anyone on the Bengals has taken this year. The season number says he is a featured receiver. The recent number says he is the first read.

1.24 EPA per target: Higgins is the efficiency leader

Tee Higgins has taken a smaller share, 24% over the last three weeks, but he has done more with it. His 25 targets returned 335 yards, 1.24 EPA per play and an 80% success rate. His season mark is 0.82 EPA per play, so he has improved on an already strong baseline.

His snap share fell from 87% in Week 7 to 68% in Week 9, a drop of 19 points. The production did not follow it down. Mike Gesicki sits behind them at 9% of targets, with 0.26 EPA per play over the same stretch.

16%: Chase Brown gets targets that do not pay

Chase Brown has been targeted on 16% of throws in the last three weeks, the same as his season rate, and those plays are worth negative 0.12 EPA each. On the ground he has 32 carries for 151 yards at negative 0.18 EPA per play and a 41% success rate. For the season, his 103 rushing plays sit at negative 0.15 EPA with a 38% success rate.

The team rushing offense ranks 18th, against third for the pass offense. Samaje Perine has gone from a 23% snap share in Week 7 to 40% in Week 9. His rushing EPA, negative 0.01 over the last three weeks, is better than Brown's, though still not positive.

0.46 EPA per play: Joe Burrow is outrunning his own season

Joe Burrow's season line is 0.26 EPA per play and a 55% success rate over 322 plays. In the last three weeks it is 0.46 and 63% over 118 plays, with 984 yards. His completion percentage over expected is 16.4, up from 9.7 for the season.

The offense as a whole produced 0.351 EPA per play in Week 9, its best game of the year. The early-down pass rate that day was 55%, well below the 75% of Week 8, so the output did not require a pass-heavy script.

What to watch Sunday

Cincinnati is 6-2 and tied with Pittsburgh atop the division. The Steelers visit on Sunday, Nov 15 at 8:20 PM ET on NBC. The Bengals defense ranks 14th against the pass and 24th against the run, and Josh Newton moved from a 9% snap share in Week 7 to 90% in Week 9 as DJ Ivey went from 79% to 11%. The numbers to track are Chase's target share against 34%, and whether Brown's touches stay in the passing game or move toward Perine.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.