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Packers DeskThe Lab Report

Green Bay ranks last in cap on the field, yet its snap margin ranks fourth-best

The Packers rank 32nd in cap on the field and fourth in how much the market undersells them, with Minnesota due at Lambeau Field in Week 10.

The Lab Report5.5Deserved wins · The Lab
By Packers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 5:31 PM ET2 min read

The most surprising number in the Packers' file is 56%. That is the share of their cap spent on players who are actually on the field, and it ranks 32nd of 32 in the league through Week 9. The team is 6-3 anyway.

56%: the cap is not on the field

Green Bay has $55.8 million committed to players on injured reserve. The Lab counts $54.8 million tied to players who are not playing at all. Both figures drag the on-field share to the bottom of the league.

The split inside the roster is wide. Safety Evan Williams carries a cap hit of $1.28 million and has played 100% of the snaps, which puts him in the 46th percentile for pay and the 98th for playing time. Running back Josh Jacobs sits at $14.54 million, the 99th percentile for pay, and the 56th for playing time. Against Minnesota, the cheap players are the ones carrying the load. Watch whether Jacobs' share of the work moves toward his salary.

Paid vs Played

4.3 points: the snaps like Green Bay more than the market

Over nine games, the betting market's expected margin for the Packers averages 0.4 points per game. Their snap-level performance deserved 4.7 points per game, and the real margin was 2.8. The gap between snaps and market is 4.3 points, the fourth-largest underrating in the league.

The closing spread has not fully caught up. Green Bay is 5-3-1 against it. The Vikings arrive with Green Bay at -3 and a total of 42.5, which are context for the matchup and not a pick. The real margin sits between the two estimates, so the line and the film agree on direction and disagree on size.

Market vs Snaps

72%: the shotgun tell

The Packers' offense has the league's most deep shots and the most targets to the middle of the field. They pass on 72% of shotgun snaps and 40% of snaps from under center. That gap makes their formations easy to read: they rank 30th of 32 in the Lab's formation-tell list, where 1 is the most predictable.

The passing game is built to stretch the defense vertically and then work the middle. Minnesota does not need to guess when to drop safeties. Look for whether Green Bay uses more under-center passing on early downs to break the pattern.

Scheme DNA

17 points: the two-minute drill delivers, the clock management does not

In nine two-minute drives, Green Bay has scored 17 points against 7.2 expected. That is a gain of 9.8 points over what the situations usually yield.

The timing around those drives is the problem. Matt LaFleur's Clock IQ score is 45 out of 99, which ranks 22nd of 32. The Packers burn 1.11 timeouts per game against a league average of 0.75. A close game on Sunday could turn on those spent timeouts before the two-minute drill even begins.

Clock IQ

Vikings at Packers kicks off Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, with the forecast at 45 degrees, 3 mph wind and no rain chance at Lambeau Field.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.