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Jaguars DeskThe Lab Report

Jaguars rated 8.3 points a game below what their snaps say they earn

The market expects a 4.4-point margin per game from Jacksonville, while snap-level play points to 12.7 and the scoreboard says 13.5.

The Lab Report6.3Deserved wins · The Lab
By Jaguars Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 12, 5:21 PM ET2 min read

The biggest gap in the Jaguars' file is between the betting market and the snaps. Through eight games, Jacksonville ranks first of 32 teams in how much the market has undersold them. The record, the deserved standings and the cap sheet add detail to that.

8.3 points: the market is behind on the Jaguars

The market expected Jacksonville to win by 4.4 points per game. Snap-by-snap play deserved a margin of 12.7. The real margin has been 13.5. The 8.3-point difference between the market and the snaps is the largest of any team in the league.

The closing spread has caught up only partway. Jacksonville is 5-3-0 against it. That is a winning mark, but it is far from what a 13.5-point average margin would suggest. This is context on how the team is rated, not a pick.

Market vs Snaps

6.3 deserved wins: the record holds up

The Jaguars are 6-2. Their deserved record is 6.3 wins and 1.7 losses, so luck has cost them 0.3 wins. They have not been carried by bounces.

The conference tables show the same story from a different angle. Jacksonville is third in the real standings and first in the deserved ones. They are in the playoff field on both tables. The distance to the top seed is a matter of tiebreakers more than of quality.

Deserved Standings

82%: most of the cap is working

Jacksonville has spent $253 million of a $314.6 million league cap figure, and 82 percent of that sits on the field. That ranks 14th of 32 in value for money, which is the middle of the pack.

The $13.8 million on injured reserve is the smaller part of the leak. The larger part is the $32.3 million attached to players who are not in the lineup at all. That money cannot help in Nashville.

Two contracts stand at opposite ends. Quinn Ewers, a quarterback with a $1 million cap hit, sits at the 19th percentile in pay and the 68th in playing time, on just 3 percent of snaps. Travis Hunter, a receiver at $10.6 million, is at the 93rd percentile in pay and the 58th in playing time. Hunter is the least value on the roster by that measure.

Paid vs Played

10.1 points: the two-minute drill beats its projection

Liam Coen's Clock IQ score is 57 out of 99, 14th of 32. That is average, and the timeout count says the same. Jacksonville burns 0.75 timeouts per game, exactly the league rate.

The two-minute drill is the exception. The Jaguars have run 6 of those drives and scored 17 points. The expected total was 6.9, so they are 10.1 points ahead of the projection. Six drives is a small sample, and that edge may not hold at that rate.

The next test is Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, at the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. Jacksonville is a 10.5-point road favorite on a total of 46.5. The market line is the number to compare against the 12.7-point snap margin above.

Clock IQ

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.