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Packers DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Packers pass game meets a Patriots secondary ranked 18th against it

Green Bay ranks 32nd in rushing offense and 13th in passing, so Sunday at Gillette runs through Jordan Love and three targets.

Jordan LoveScouting ReportatLine NE -3QBJordan Love
By Packers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 3:31 PM ET3 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Packers rank 32nd in rush offense and 13th in pass offense, and that split decides how they play Sunday. MarShawn Lloyd has 57 plays at minus-0.35 EPA per play, with a 32 percent success rate. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each play moves the scoring outlook. Josh Jacobs has 32 plays at minus-0.15. The ground game is not carrying the offense.

The passing numbers are better, if not strong. Jordan Love has 2,170 yards on 328 plays at 0.13 EPA per play and a 43 percent success rate. His completion percentage over expected is minus-1.1, meaning he completes slightly fewer passes than the difficulty of his throws predicts. Drake Maye sits at 7.3 on the same measure, with 0.22 EPA per play and 1,909 yards on 276 plays.

Both teams are 5-3 and both hold the seventh seed. The Patriots have the better point differential, plus-22 to the Packers' plus-7, and they are 3-0 at home. Green Bay is 2-2 on the road and fourth in the NFC North behind the Vikings at 6-1.

Where they can win it

The Packers' route is through the air. New England's pass defense ranks 18th, and its overall defense allows 0.009 EPA per play, 16th in the league. Green Bay's own defense allows minus-0.069, seventh, and its pass defense ranks sixth.

The target distribution shows who gets the ball. Matthew Golden leads with a 27 percent share and 624 yards, but only 0.09 EPA per play. Christian Watson draws 22 percent and produces 0.46 EPA per play on 708 yards, with a 50 percent success rate. Tucker Kraft takes 16 percent at 0.44 EPA and a 55 percent success rate.

The volume goes to Golden, and the efficiency belongs to Watson and Kraft. Moving a few targets from the first to the others is the cleanest adjustment available on third-and-6.

The worry

The Patriots offense ranks eighth at 0.063 EPA per play with a 46 percent success rate, and its pass offense ranks sixth. Green Bay's defense has to hold up against that, and its rush defense is 11th, behind its pass defense.

The Patriots spread the ball around. DeMario Douglas has 0.57 EPA per play on 37 plays, Hunter Henry has 0.55 and a 71 percent success rate, and Romeo Doubs has 0.52 on 24 plays. A.J. Brown is out, which narrows the options but has not yet changed the efficiency of those three.

The Packers' recent results are mixed. They beat the Panthers 27-19 in Week 8 and the Bears 31-7 in Week 5, but lost 20-17 at the Lions in Week 7.

Availability

Green Bay is thin up front. Travis Glover (OT) and Sean Rhyan (G) are both out, and both are starters. Zaire Franklin (LB) is also out. Keisean Nixon (CB) is questionable with a groin injury. Lloyd (RB) is questionable with a knee injury, and Josh Whyle (TE) is out with a concussion. Micah Parsons (DE) is out with a knee injury, and Chris Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve.

New England has Brown out. Henry (TE) is questionable with a foot injury, as is Morgan Moses (OT). TreVeyon Henderson (RB) is out with an illness, and Brenden Schooler (S) is questionable. The injury designations will settle before the Sunday, Nov. 8 kickoff at 4:25 PM ET on Fox at Gillette Stadium.

New England is a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5, a number that reflects two offenses ranked 16th and 8th in EPA per play.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.