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Packers DeskThe TapeGame center →

Jordan Love throws for 372 yards as Packers turn four takeaways into a rout in New England

Love went 23 of 29 with no interceptions, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden took the targets that mattered in a 45-27 road win.

Jordan LoveThe TapeW 45–27atPATRIOTSQBJordan Love
By Packers Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 8, 8:50 PM ET3 min read

The deciding stretch

The game turned in the first four and a half minutes. At 14:32 of the first quarter, X.McKinney intercepted a deep left throw from D.Maye intended for M.Hollins and returned it 36 yards to the New England 14. That one play moved win probability 12 points toward Green Bay.

Jordan Love scrambled up the middle for a 13-yard touchdown at 13:19. Then, at 10:47, he threw deep right to Matthew Golden for 49 yards, to the New England 18. Each of those plays was worth 7 points of win probability. The Packers led 14-0 after one quarter, and the Patriots, who were the three-point favorites (NE -3), spent the rest of the afternoon chasing.

The swing

New England did answer. The Patriots scored 14 in the second quarter, and the biggest counter-swing came at 9:23, when Maye hit R.Stevenson on a deep left throw for a 30-yard touchdown. That play cost Green Bay 10 points of win probability, the largest hit the Packers took in this game.

It did not hold. Green Bay scored 18 in the third quarter to New England's 7, and the final margin was 18 points. The gap was takeaways: the Patriots finished with four turnovers, and Green Bay's longest drive of the day, seven plays and 86 yards, ended in a touchdown. New England's longest was nearly as long at 77 yards, but it came from an offense that gave the ball away on four of its 13 drives.

The Packers also held the ball for 35:01 to the Patriots' 23:52. That is a product of the scoring, not a plan: Green Bay converted only 4 of 12 third downs and went 0 for 1 on fourth down, yet still finished 4 of 5 in the red zone.

Who moved the needle

Love was the whole offense. He completed 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns, with no interceptions and a passer rating of 153.2. He averaged 12.8 yards per attempt even after three sacks for 23 yards. His 33 plays added 25 total points of EPA, or expected points added, which measures how much each play changes a team's scoring outlook compared with an average result from that spot on the field.

The target tree was narrow. Christian Watson caught 7 of 8 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown, an average of 24.4 yards a catch, with a long of 43. Golden caught all 10 of his targets for 164 yards and a score. Together they produced 14.6 and 13.2 EPA, the second and third highest marks on the team. Savion Williams added 3 catches on 4 targets for 25 yards and a touchdown, and Pierre Strong Jr. caught both of his targets for 11 yards.

The ground game was a different story. Green Bay's EPA per rush was -0.195, against 0.759 per dropback. Kaleb Johnson carried 14 times for 68 yards and a touchdown, with a 34-yard long. Strong carried 8 times for 22 yards, 2.8 a carry, and finished at -2.2 EPA, the worst on the roster. Tucker Kraft, at -2.1 EPA on 3 plays, was the only receiver in the red.

On defense, Karl Brooks had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hits. Isaiah McDuffie led with 10 tackles, 2 for loss, and a sack. Dani Dennis-Sutton added half a sack and Nick Niemann broke up a pass. New England's Maye was sacked 4 times for 27 yards, and the Patriots' EPA per dropback was -0.221.

Where it leaves them

The Packers are 6-3 with a two-game winning streak and a plus-25 point differential (216 scored, 191 allowed). They are 3-2 on the road. The standings still leave them fourth in the NFC North, behind Minnesota at 6-1, Chicago at 6-2 and Detroit at 6-2, and in the seventh playoff seed.

The next game is against that first-place Vikings team at Lambeau Field on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. Green Bay is a 3-point home favorite (GB -3). The Packers' offense averaged 10.9 yards per pass against New England, and the Vikings will have to show whether they can keep Love's targets, Watson and Golden, from running free the same way.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.