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Lions DeskScouting ReportGame center →

Lions' top-six offense meets the league's worst defense in Miami

Detroit ranks sixth in EPA per play. Miami's defense ranks last in the same category and has lost home games in all three tries.

atScouting ReportatLine DET -6.5
By Lions Desk, Pigskin NightlyNov 7, 2:31 PM ET2 min read

The matchup in numbers

The Lions offense ranks sixth in the league at 0.113 EPA per play. The Dolphins defense ranks 32nd, allowing 0.131. EPA, or expected points added, measures how much each snap moves a team's scoring chances, so a positive number means the offense is gaining ground on average.

Detroit is 5-2 with a three-game winning streak and holds the sixth seed in the conference. The Lions have scored 203 points and allowed 180, a difference of 23. Miami is 1-6 with a minus-64 point differential and an 0-3 mark at home.

The last two Detroit wins were close: 19-15 over the Vikings in Week 8 and 20-17 over the Packers in Week 7. Miami lost 24-19 to the Patriots in Week 8 and beat the Jets 28-25 the week before.

Where they can win it

The path runs through the passing game. Detroit's pass offense ranks fourth, and Miami's pass defense ranks 32nd. Jared Goff has 1,848 yards on 269 plays at 0.24 EPA per play, with a 51 percent success rate.

Sam LaPorta is the most efficient target on the roster. He has 367 yards on 44 plays at 0.74 EPA per play and a 66 percent success rate. Jameson Williams has 437 yards on 44 plays at 0.54. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the team with a 31 percent target share and 580 yards.

The ground game is less settled. Jahmyr Gibbs has 773 yards on 158 plays, but his EPA per play is minus 0.03. Detroit's rush offense ranks 15th, and Miami's rush defense ranks 18th, so the Dolphins are better against the run than against the pass.

The worry

The Lions defense ranks 30th, allowing 0.11 EPA per play, and opponents succeed on 46 percent of plays against it. The pass defense ranks 29th. Detroit gave up 32 points in its Week 4 loss at Panthers, 26-32.

Miami's offense ranks 23rd, with a 40 percent success rate, so the Dolphins have not punished weak defenses often. Malik Willis has 1,169 yards on 227 plays at 0.01 EPA per play, and his completion rate sits 5.4 points below expectation.

Greg Dulcich is the Dolphins target to track. He has 256 yards on 29 plays at 0.45 EPA per play. Malik Washington leads Miami with a 25 percent target share and 329 yards.

The road record also gives pause. Detroit is 4-0 at home and 1-2 away.

Availability

Detroit is missing two defensive starters. Cornerback D.J. Reed (hip) and linebacker Jack Campbell (neck) are both out. Safety Kerby Joseph (knee), linebacker DJ Wonnum (concussion) and center Cade Mays (ankle) are also out. Jimmy Rolder and Isiah Pacheco are on injured reserve.

St. Brown carries a questionable tag for his ribs. Running backs Sione Vaki (ankle) and Jacob Saylors (neck) are questionable as well.

Miami lists starting running back Jaylen Wright as questionable with a quadriceps injury. Kaytron Allen and Malik Herring are questionable, and cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. is out. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium on Fox, and the final injury designations will come before then.

For context, Detroit is a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 49.5.

How this was reported. Every number in this piece comes from the play-by-play, drive, injury and snap data Pigskin Nightly collects for every game. EPA (expected points added) is from the open nflverse model. We do not use anonymous sources or invent quotes. Read how we write; spotted an error? Tell us and we will correct it in the open.